Friday, January 31, 2025

Techno Supreme aka The Man Behind the Curtain Is Not a Computer


Big Fossil doesn't want it to be true:
Research shows that auto plants grew their workforces after transitioning to electric vehicle production
Sep 2024, phys.org

Researchers at the University of Michigan have shown that plants in the ramp-up stages of transitioning to full-scale EV production saw assembly jobs increase as much as 10 times. At one plant studied, now with over a decade of EV production, the number of workers needed to make each vehicle has remained three times higher.

"There is a shortage of information out there about how the transition is shaping up. What we're seeing, with the data that's available, is that the loss of employment predicted for EVs is not happening."

via University of Michigan: Andrew Weng et al, Higher labor intensity in US automotive assembly plants after transitioning to electric vehicles, Nature Communications (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52435-x



McDonald’s touchscreen kiosks were feared as job killers
Sep 2024, CNN Business

“In theory, kiosks should help save on labor, but in reality, restaurants have added complexity due to mobile ordering and delivery, and the labor saved from kiosks is often reallocated for these efforts. Kiosks “have created a restaurant within a restaurant.”

And in some cases, kiosks have even been a flop. Bowling ally chain Bowlero added kiosks in lanes for customers to order food and drinks, but they went unused because staff and customers weren’t fully trained on using them.

A recent study from Temple University researchers found that, when a line forms behind customers using kiosks, they experience more stress when placing their orders and purchase less food. And some customers take longer to order tapping around on kiosks and paying than they do telling a cashier they’d like to order a burger and fries.

Sociologist at Drew University Christopher Andrews - “The introduction of ATMs did not result in massive technological unemployment for bank tellers,” he said. “Instead, it freed them up from low-value tasks such as depositing and cashing checks to perform other tasks* that created value.”
*Note, as experienced by certain Wells Fargo employees circa 2015, these "other tasks" included using customer account data to upsell investment instruments: Wells Fargo to Pay $500 Million for Misleading Investors About the Success of Its Largest Business Unit (between 2012 and 2016), reported 2020

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Predictus Maxiumus


I wanted to make a list of all the things we can predict about you based on all the things you had no idea you were even doing, starting with the re-post from five years ago:

Personal Behavior via Likes 
A few dozen "likes" can guess:
  • race (95%)
  • marital status (88%)
  • political party (85%)
  • marital status
  • religiosity
  • cigarette smoking
  • drug use
  • separated parents
70 likes gets you:
  • the Big 5 personality trait survey responses (better than a friend could guess)
150 likes:
  • Big 5, better than a parent
300 likes:
  • Big 5, better than a partner
--via the book User Friendly: How the Hidden rules of Design Are Changing the Way We Live, Work, and Play, by Cliff Kuang and Robert Fabricant, 2019. https://bookshop.org/p/books/user-friendly-how-the-hidden-rules-of-design-are-changing-the-way-we-live-work-and-play-cliff-kuang/10360410


And as for the rest, starting from 2009 but mostly 2022-2024:

Throws in Paper Rock Scissors via High Speed Vision

Identity via 4 Points of Purchasing Data

Thoughts via Brain Activity 11 Seconds in Advance

Personality Type via Mobile Phone Accelerometers as Proxy for Phone Use

Keystrokes via Video Recording of Shoulder Movements While Typing

Emergency Hospital Visit via Increasing Use of Formal Language to Describe Health

Identified Troll Status via 50 Tweets Worth of Meta-data

Opioid Overdose via 311 Call Complaints About General Nieghborhood Conditions

Disinformation Spread Potential of User via Reliability of Sources Posted by User 

Fraudlent Activity via Slow and Deviating Computer Mouse Movements

Drunkenness via 12 Seconds of Speech

Structural Integrity of Bridges via Mobile Phone Accelerometer Data of Users on Bridge

Choice Preference via Faster Eye Movement Speed

Eavesdropping via Radar Sensing of Phone Vibrations During Call

Passwords via Heat of Fingers Left on Keyboard

Anxiety via Gait

Location Data via Network of Colocated Strangers

Depression by Tweeting Habits

Eyeball Movements and Viewing Direction via Ear Squeaks

Choice Preference via Eye Movements

Emotional Status via 1 Second of Voice

Smiling via Minute Facial Expressions in Preparation for Smiling

Depression via Increased Use of First-person Singular Pronouns on Social Media

Traffic Stop Outcome via Officer's First 45 Words

Behavior via 25-Day Cycle Patterns of Phone Touching Behavior

Stress via More Often and Less Precise Computer Mouse Use and Frequent Typing Pauses

Cryptographic Keys via Changes in Power Consumption Seen in Power LED Lights

Call Information via Speaker Vibrations Recorded on Phone's Motion Sensors

Blood Volume Pulse via Face Color

Diabetes via 10 Seconds of Voice

DNA via Face Similarity (yeah it's true)

Disease via Tongue Color

Driver Alertness via Seatbelt-Integrated Biosensor

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Mindless Autonomy


Everybody loves slime molds, nature's gift to urban planning, so let's start there.

Evidently efficient - Self-organization of informal bus lines in the Global South
July 2024, phys.org

The Global North usually have centrally planned public transport systems, and the Global South has it provided by informal services and ad hoc routes. They studied 7,000 formal and informal bus lines across 36 cities and 22 countries using open GPS data.

The routes of informal transport self-organize in a way that reaches or even exceeds the efficiency level of centralized services. The findings call into question the general perception of informal transport as an "inferior alternative" to centrally organized services.

"Informal transport, however, has fewer detours and more uniform routes than centrally planned services, so the routes are efficient - and profitable even without the extensive subsidies that are common in the Global North" 

Ah yes, the transfer of money from public funds to private funds, where the public gets a less efficient, lower quality system, and rich people who own the private entities get a nice, consistent, government-guaranteed source of income for their (dis)service.

via Dresden University of Technology: Kush Mohan Mittal et al, Efficient self-organization of informal public transport networks, Nature Communications (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49193-1



Study explores the link between stock market fluctuations and emergency room visits in China
Jul 2024, phys.org

Using daily emergency room visit records from the three largest hospitals in Beijing from 2009 to 2012, we find that a one percentage point decrease in daily market returns is associated with 0.185 increased cases of cardiovascular diseases and 0.020 increased cases of mental disorders on that day. Moreover, a one percentage point increase in daily market returns is associated with 0.035 increase in cases of alcohol abuse on that day. By contrast, diseases that are less related to psychological stress (infections, parasitic diseases, etc) are not significantly affected by market fluctuations.

via National University of Singapore, Jinan University, Peking University and Sun Yat-sen University: Sumit Agarwal et al, Associations between stock market fluctuations and stress-related emergency room visits in China, Nature Mental Health (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s44220-024-00267-5


Women's education influences fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa, forecasting model finds
Nov 2024, phys.org

So it's not just GDP but also women's education that lowers fertility:

They developed a fertility forecasting model based on education levels of 138 demographic and health surveys conducted in 39 sub-Saharan African countries between 1986 and 2022, and found not only the education of the individual women matters, but also the average education of the environment in which the women live. Higher average educational attainment is significantly correlated with lower ideal family size and lower actual fertility for women in each separate education category. 

"Educated women are leading the shift towards smaller family sizes in high-fertility communities, even influencing the choices of women with less education around them."

via International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, University of Vienna, and the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital: Saroja Adhikari et al, Forecasting Africa's fertility decline by female education groups, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2320247121


Researchers propose a mathematical definition of cell death
Nov 2024, phys.org

"My long-term scientific goal is to understand the inherent difference between life and nonlife, mathematically; why the transition from nonlife to life is so difficult, while the other way around is so easy."

This led them to develop a computational method for quantifying the life-death boundary, which they call "stoichiometric rays." The method was developed by focusing on enzymatic reactions and the second law of thermodynamics, which states that systems naturally move from ordered to disordered states.

"We naively believe that death is irreversible, but it is not so trivial and does not have to be the case. I believe that should death come more under our control, human beings, our understanding of life, and society will change completely. In this sense, to understand death is crucial in terms of science and also in terms of social implications."

via University of Tokyo: Yusuke Himeoka et al, A theoretical basis for cell deaths. Physical Review Research (2024). On arXiv. DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2403.02169

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

The Tree of Life is a Dictionary


Survey shows shift in language around mental health over 79 years
Jun 2024, phys.org

340,000 texts taken from Google Books, and a combination of the Corpus of Historical American English, and the Corpus of Contemporary American English, and spanning 79 years from 1940–2019, using a list of generic terms for mental ill health. It's important to note that the authors here have specifically looked at numerical frequency of word usage in written culture, rather than community word preferences over time.
  • Generic terms for mental ill health appeared more than twice as often in 2019 as in 1940
  • Phrases which included "disease," and "disturbance" grew less common over time
  • Phrases that included words like "mental health," "psychiatric," and "illness" were used more commonly
  • In particular, "mental illness," after a spike in popularity between the 1940s and 1960s, reigned as the most-used term. 

via University of Melbourne: Haslam N, Baes N. What should we call mental ill health? Historical shifts in the popularity of generic terms. PLOS Mental Health (2024). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmen.0000032



Study finds politicians use simpler language on hot days
Jun 2024, phys.org

They used seven million parliamentary speeches representing more than 28,000 politicians in eight different countries over several decades combined with global meteorological data.

Hot days reduce language complexity but cold days did not have the same effect.

They looked closer using a subset in Germany: The larger effect size observed in older politicians could be because older individuals are more susceptible to extreme temperatures.

via Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock: The effect of temperature on language complexity: Evidence from seven million parliamentary speeches, iScience (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110106


Texting abbreviations makes senders seem insincere, study finds
Nov 2024, phys.org

u wot mate??

via Stanford: David Fang et al. Shortcuts to Insincerity: Texting Abbreviations Seem Insincere and Not Worth Answering, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General (2024). DOI: 10.1037/xge0001684.


Northerners, Scots and Irish excel at detecting fake accents to guard against outsiders, study suggests
Nov 2024, phys.org

Just this thought, never considered this - 
 "Cultural, political, or even violent conflict are likely to encourage people to strengthen their accents as they try to maintain social cohesion through cultural homogeneity. Even relatively mild tension, for example the intrusion of tourists in the summer, could have this effect."

via University of Cambridge: Evidence that cultural groups differ in their abilities to detect fake accents, Evolutionary Human Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1017/ehs.2024.36

Monday, January 27, 2025

The Paradigm Liberation Front


This weblog is typically avoiding all things health-related, and because that's a mess that can swallow you whole, but this is from the Santa Fe Institute. Along with the Complexity Hub in Vienna, and sometimes the RIKEN Institute in Japan, the Santa Fe Institute is the premier institution in the world for those interested in the other side of the cutting edge of science, where the rules haven't been written yet, and all the departments kind sound like each other:

Western diets pose greater risk of cancer and inflammatory bowel disease
Jul 2024, phys.org

From SFI's new outpost in Ireland: They examined Mediterranean, high-fiber, plant-based, high-protein, ketogenic, and Western diets, to underscore the detrimental effects of the Western diet, characterized by high fat and sugar intake, compared to the benefits of diets rich in plant-based and high-fiber foods. By contrast, it finds that a Mediterranean diet, high in fruits, vegetables, is effective in managing conditions such as cardiovascular disease, IBD, and type 2 diabetes.

via APC Microbiome Ireland, an SFI Research Centre at University College Cork, and Teagasc: Fiona C. Ross et al, The interplay between diet and the gut microbiome: implications for health and disease, Nature Reviews Microbiology (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41579-024-01068-4



How higher-order interactions can remodel the landscape of complex systems
Oct 2024, phys.org

Higher-order interactions can lead to deeper "basins of attraction," which are collections of starting points that end up at the same state as the system moves forward in time. If the system were a pendulum, the lowest point is an attractor, and every possible starting point is in the basin of attraction because they all eventually converge there. 

If the system were a brain working through a complicated math problem, then the thought processes that lead to a solution—hopefully the correct one—are in the basin of attraction. A deeper basin means that the solutions are more stable—that is, starting points get to the bottom faster or more quickly recover from small perturbations.

But even though the basins get deeper, they become narrower. What starting points do end up in the basin get there faster, but overall, fewer starting points lead to the bottom.

via Santa Fe Institute: Yuanzhao Zhang et al, Deeper but smaller: Higher-order interactions increase linear stability but shrink basins, Science Advances (2024). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado8049.


This one is old as hell:
Aging societies more vulnerable to collapse, suggests analysis
Dec 2023, phys.org

This new study shows that pre-modern states faced a steeply increasing risk of collapse within the first two centuries after they formed.

"This approach is commonly used to study the risk of death in aging humans, but nobody had the idea to look at societies this way." 

In humans, the risk of dying doubles approximately every six to seven years after infancy. As that exponential process compounds with great age, few people survive more than 100 years. The authors show that it works differently for states. Their risk of termination rises steeply over the first two centuries but then levels off, allowing a few to persist much longer than usual.

They found a similar pattern all over the world from European pre-modern societies to early civilizations in the Americas to Chinese dynasties. (Gulps in American)

via Santa Fe Institute: Marten Scheffer et al, The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2218834120

RIKEN calling in:
Chaotic dynamics in the brain may enable probabilistic thinking
Jul 2024, phys.org    

Even when watching a blank screen with no sound, neurons in the cortex fluctuate spontaneously. Some experiments suggest that this spontaneous activity corresponds to the brain ruminating over imagined possible scenarios—perhaps based on sensory inputs the brain has been presented with in the past, and that this activity follows chaotic dynamics.

The pair fed a computational neural network, driven by chaotic dynamics, with sensory inputs about an object's location.

"One neuron would fire for the object being in the north, another for it being in the northeast, and so on." At any one moment, because of the chaos, the firing neuron can change irregularly. But when averaged over time, the frequency of neurons firing mapped to the correct probability for the object's location.

"In our model, the ultimate probabilistic distribution is robust and gives nearly optimal results, despite the chaos."

via RIKEN: Yu Terada et al, Chaotic neural dynamics facilitate probabilistic computations through sampling, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2312992121

Post Script: Spoken like someone who works at RIKEN: "Today's AI is very good, but it's not blowing our minds"


Exploring the evolution of social norms with a supercomputer
Aug 2024, phys.org

RIKEN meets the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology; you're in some sh** now:

Thye've created an arena of natural selection (artificial selection) for social norms, so they fight it out and see who wins. This is hard because the norms added to the model, the more complex the interactions. But that's ok, because they used RIKEN's Fugaku, one of the fastest supercomputers worldwide.

They analyzed the reputation dynamics among all 2,080 norms of a natural complexity class, the so-called "third-order norms."

The research shows that cooperative norms are difficult to sustain if the population consists of a single well-mixed community. However, if the population is subdivided into several smaller communities, cooperative norms evolve more easily.

The most successful norm in the simulations is particularly simple. It views cooperation as universally positive and defection as generally negative—except when defection is used as a means to discipline other defectors.

It suggests that the structure of a population significantly influences which social norms prevail and how durable cooperation is. 

via RIKEN Center for Computational Science and Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology in Plön: Yohsuke Murase et al, Computational evolution of social norms in well-mixed and group-structured populations, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2406885121


Sunday, January 26, 2025

The Offloading of Executive Function as Precursor to the Singularity


When they said the phone had become your exocortex, they were not kidding - the executive function of a human is being outsourced to computers (algorithms, AI, etc.); we're seeing it happen in real time. Not sure what this means for the future of humans, and not sure what the intorduction of the alphabet did in this regard, or what Socrates would have said about all this, but here we are:

(Don't forget the incentive here - with the offloading of executive control, we also offload liability.)

Internet addiction affects behavior and development of adolescents, study finds
Jun 2024, phys.org

Meta study of small groups but fMRI: 12 articles involving 237 young people aged 10–19 with a formal diagnosis of internet addiction between 2013 and 2023.

The effects of internet addiction were seen throughout multiple neural networks in the brains of adolescents. There was a mixture of increased and decreased activity in the parts of the brain that are activated when resting (the default mode network).

Meanwhile, there was an overall decrease in the functional connectivity in the parts of the brain involved in active thinking (the executive control network).

These changes were found to lead to addictive behaviors and tendencies in adolescents, as well as behavior changes associated with intellectual ability, physical coordination, mental health and development.

via University College London: Functional connectivity changes in the brain of adolescents with internet addiction: A systematic literature review of imaging studies, PLOS Mental Health (2024). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmen.0000022



And now, speaking of executive function, it appears that the executives among us (i.e., managers) are the most at-risk and yet the most unwilling to recognize that they are squarely on the chopping block in the coming revolution:

Economist says hybrid work is a 'win-win-win' for productivity, performance and retention
Jun 2024, phys.org

Sometimes the truth is easy, not often but sometimes:

In a randomly controlled experiment on more than 1,600 workers at one of the world's largest online travel agencies, Trip.com, employees who worked from home for two days a week were just as productive and as likely to be promoted as their fully office-based peers.

On a third key measure, employee turnover, the results were also encouraging. Resignations fell by 33% among workers who shifted from working full-time in the office to a hybrid schedule. Women, non-managers, and employees with long commutes were the least likely to quit their jobs when their treks to the office were cut to three days a week. Trip.com estimates that reduced attrition saved the company millions of dollars.

Also, resignations fell only among non-managers; managers were just as likely to quit whether they were hybrid or not.

And, managers predicted on average that remote working would hurt productivity, only to change their minds by the time the experiment ended.

Opponents say that employee training and mentoring, innovation, and company culture suffer when workers are not on site five days a week, but critics often confuse hybrid for fully remote.

This suggests that problems with fully remote work arise when it's not managed well.

via Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research: Nicholas Bloom, Hybrid working from home improves retention without damaging performance, Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07500-2. 

Using AI to train AI: Model collapse could be coming for LLMs
Jul 2024, phys.org

The research shows that within a few generations, original content is replaced by unrelated nonsense, demonstrating the importance of using reliable data to train AI models. This is called model collapse. 

They found that feeding a model AI-generated data causes successive generations to degrade in their ability to learn, eventually leading to model collapse.

Nearly all of the recursively trained language models they tested tended to display repeating phrases. For example, a test was run using text about medieval architecture as the original input and by the ninth generation the output was a list of jackrabbits.

The authors propose that model collapse is an inevitable outcome of AI models that use training datasets created by previous generations.

via OATML Department of Computer Science University of Oxford: Ilia Shumailov et al, AI models collapse when trained on recursively generated data, Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07566-y

Also: Emily Wenger, AI produces gibberish when trained on too much AI-generated data, Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-02355-z , doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-02355-z

Autonomy boosts college student attendance and performance
Jul 2024, phys.org

Students were given the choice to make their own attendance mandatory. Contradicting common faculty beliefs, 90% of students in the initial study chose to do so, committing themselves to attending class reliably or to having their final grades docked. Under this "optional-mandatory attendance" policy, students came to class more reliably than students whose attendance had been mandated.

Like too many rules make the willpower weak.

via Carnegie Mellon University: Simon Cullen et al, Choosing to learn: The importance of student autonomy in higher education, Science Advances (2024). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado6759


Breaking MAD: Generative AI could break the internet
Jul 2024, phys.org

Model Autophagy Disorder (MAD) by analogy to mad cow disease. Auto phage means eating yourself.

First peer-reviewed work on AI autophagy:

"The problems arise when this synthetic data training is, inevitably, repeated, forming a kind of a feedback loop--what we call an autophagous or 'self-consuming' loop," said Richard Baraniuk, Rice's C. Sidney Burrus Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering. "Our group has worked extensively on such feedback loops, and the bad news is that even after a few generations of such training, the new models can become irreparably corrupted. This has been termed 'model collapse' by some--most recently by colleagues in the field in the context of large language models (LLMs). We, however, find the term 'Model Autophagy Disorder' (MAD) more apt, by analogy to mad cow disease."

via Rice University Digital Signal Processing group: Self-Consuming Generative Models Go MAD. Sina Alemohammad et al. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2307.01850

Post Script: Contemplate the possibility of us having to rebuild the internet from scratch and on purpose, so like there will be literally armies of artists, writers and musicians, etc., who's sole job is to create authentic, original training data. (Idea stolen from artist Ben Grosser)


And on the other hand:
A person's intelligence limits their computer proficiency more than previously thought, say researchers
Sep 2024, phys.org

"Everyday user interfaces have simply become too complex to use."

"It is clear that differences between individuals cannot be eliminated simply by means of training; in the future, user interfaces need to be streamlined for simpler use. This age-old goal has been forgotten at some point, and awkwardly designed interfaces have become a driver for the digital divide. We cannot promote a deeper and more equal use of computers in society unless we solve this basic problem."

"However, the research findings also show that age remains the most important factor in how well an individual can use applications. Older people clearly took more time to complete their tasks, and they also felt that the assignments were more burdensome."

via Aalto University Department of Information and Communications Engineering and the University of Helsinki Department of Psychology:  Erik Lintunen et al, Cognitive abilities predict performance in everyday computer tasks, International Journal of Human-Computer Studies (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhcs.2024.103354

Post Script on too much executive function!?
Research AI model unexpectedly modified its own code to extend runtime
Aug 2024, Ars Technica

"The AI Scientist automates the entire research lifecycle. From generating novel research ideas, writing any necessary code, and executing experiments, to summarizing experimental results, visualizing them, and presenting its findings in a full scientific manuscript." It's run by Tokyo-based AI research firm Sakana AI.

"In one run, it edited the code to perform a system call to run itself," wrote the researchers on Sakana AI's blog post. "This led to the script endlessly calling itself. In another case, its experiments took too long to complete, hitting our timeout limit. Instead of making its code run faster, it simply tried to modify its own code to extend the timeout period."
Nice.

Post Post Script, on Automation and the Illusion of Control
Partial automated driving systems don’t make driving safer, study finds
Jul 2024, Ars Technica

Whatever you do, don't read this sentence: "Everything we’re seeing tells us that partial automation is a convenience feature like power windows or heated seats rather than a safety technology," said David Harkey, president of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.


Saturday, January 25, 2025

Peak Climate Confusion


There's a lot happening in the climate news, but Network Address is less interested in the facts, and more interested in the meta-facts, like how many superlatives an article uses, or how many new words have to be coined in order to keep track of what the heck is going on, or just cases where the weather centers monitoring disasters are themselves in the disaster zone, or maybe just outer space observatories that were never meant to be weather stations yet provide more accurate data than actual weather stations. It's all in there:

But first! More examples of scientists saying the word "crazy"
Hurricane Beryl supercharged by ‘crazy’ ocean temperatures, experts say
Jul 2024, The Guardian

“In the Caribbean Sea it has actually been warmer than its usual peak since mid-May, which is absolutely crazy,” said McNoldy. “If the ocean already looks like it’s the peak of hurricane season, we are going to get peak hurricanes.” [Not just crazy but absolutely crazy.]



Shipping emissions regulations enacted in 2020 improved air quality but accelerated warming
Aug 2024, phys.org

Regulations put into effect in 2020 by the International Maritime Organization required a roughly 80% reduction in the sulfur content of shipping fuel used globally.

They scanned over a million satellite images and quantified the declining count of ship tracks, estimating a 25 to 50% reduction in visible tracks. Where the cloud count was down, the degree of warming was generally up.

Further work by the authors simulated the effects of the ship aerosols in three climate models and compared the cloud changes to observed cloud and temperature changes since 2020. Roughly half of the potential warming from the shipping emission changes materialized in just four years, according to the new work. In the near future, more warming is likely to follow as the climate response continues unfolding. (Although it is noted that the magnitude of warming in 2023 is too significant to be attributed to the emissions change alone, according to their findings.)

via Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory: A. Gettelman et al, Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?, Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109077


Say something about the speed of new word occurrence in a general field as related to a kind of turbulence or unpredictability or some kind of measurement of entropy in a system: 

Mexico counting dead from 'zombie storm' John
Sep 2024, BBC News

The term "zombie storm" was first used by meteorologists from the US National Weather Service in 2020 to describe a storm which dissipates only to regenerate again.

This storm hit Mexico's Pacific Coast, then dissipated over the mountains before regaining strength over the waters of the Pacific and hitting the Mexican coast a second time.


We’re only beginning to understand the historic nature of Helene’s flooding
Sep 2024, Eric Berger for Ars Technica

The National Climatic Data Center maintains the world's largest climate data archive and provides historical perspective to put present-day weather conditions and natural disasters into context in a warming world due to climate change.

Unfortunately, the National Climatic Data Center is based in Asheville, North Carolina. As I write this, the center's website remains offline. That's because Asheville, a city in North Carolina's Blue Ridge Mountains, is the epicenter of catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Helene that has played out over the last week. The climate data facility is inoperable because water and electricity services in the region have entirely broken down due to flooding.

N.J. weather - Is this our driest October ever?
Oct 2024, nj.com

So many superlatives:
If our long streak of dry weather continues, this not only will turn out to be the driest October in most areas of New Jersey — but also the driest of any month on record.

If the month ended today, this would be the driest October ever recorded in the Newark, Trenton and Atlantic City areas, as well as New York City and Philadelphia.

It also would be number one for the least amount of rain to fall from the sky in any month of any year — not just October, according to the weather data.


Observatory finds local 1.1 ºC increase in 20 years, twice as much as predicted by climate models
Oct 2024, phys.org

Surprise - At the observatory, the weather station has sent data on temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed and direction every two seconds for the past twenty years. "The station was built with the intention to have some guidance for telescope operations, not to characterize local weather professionally, let alone the effects of climate change on the measured parameters. But the fact that they were relatively low-cost devices has been an advantage, since they had to be changed and recalibrated every two years or so, which has favored the reliability of the data and greatly limited the effects of long-term sensor drifts, which are difficult to detect."

But alas - The experimental data obtained show an increase of 1.1ºC over the past 20 years, i.e., 0.55ºC per decade. This is more than double the increase predicted by climate models for the same area, and even more than expected for the next 20 years.

via Department of Physics of the Autonomous University of Barcelona and the Roque de los Muchachos  Observatory: Markus Gaug et al, Detailed analysis of local climate at the CTAO-North site on La Palma from 20 yr of MAGIC weather station data, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (2024). DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stae2214


'Doomsday' Antarctic glacier melting faster than expected, fueling calls for geoengineering
Nov 2024, phys.org

This is about glacial geoengineering not just the "regular kind" (i.e., stratospheric injection)

One example - creating a giant submarine curtain that would at least partially prevent warm tidal currents from reaching the glacier ice. 

via the Columbia University Climate School


Unexplained heat-wave 'hotspots' are popping up across the globe
Nov 2024, phys.org

Just here for the ad copy:

Distinct regions are seeing repeated heat waves that are so extreme, they fall far beyond what any model of global warming can predict or explain.

For instance, a nine-day wave that hammered the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in June 2021 broke daily records in some locales by 30°C, or 54°F. This included the highest ever temperature recorded in Canada, 121.3°F, in Lytton, British Columbia. The town burned to the ground the next day ... .

via Columbia Climate School's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory: Kai Kornhuber et al, Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2411258121

You know we're having a problem making sense of what's happening with the climate when we're willing to take into consideration the quantum effects of water:

Quantum mechanism identified as a key to accelerating ocean temperatures
Nov 2024, phys.org

Professor Smith said the apparent role of non-thermal energy in accelerating ocean temperatures now needs to be factored into climate models:

"When ocean water is heated by radiation from the sun and the sky it stores energy not only as heat, but as hybrid pairs of photons coupled to oscillating water molecules.

"These pairs are a natural form of quantum information, different to the information researchers are pursuing in the development of quantum computing. This extra store of energy has always been present and aided ocean thermal stability prior to 1960.

"But now the average heat dissipated overnight from each day's heating is no longer stable as extra heat input from Earth's atmosphere raises both forms of stored energy [including the quantum energy described above]."

via University of Technology Sydney: G B Smith, A many-body quantum model is proposed as the mechanism responsible for accelerating rates of heat uptake by oceans as anthropogenic heat inputs rise, Journal of Physics Communications (2024). DOI: 10.1088/2399-6528/ad8f11


On the heels of recent concern over the use of the word "tipping point" as having become kind of useless, and the scientific community is asking to stop using the word because it's confusing and counterproductive:

Rapid surge in global warming mainly due to reduced planetary albedo, researchers suggest
Dec 2024, phys.org

Far worse than expected - not only is it yes to the shipping sulfur aerosols, but also the warming itself is doing this, which means we've passed the tipping point (decades early).

"The 0.2-degree-Celsius 'explanation gap' for 2023 is currently one of the most intensely discussed questions in climate research."

One trend appears to have significantly affected the reduced planetary albedo: the decline in low-altitude clouds in the northern mid-latitudes and the tropics. In this regard, the Atlantic particularly stands out, i.e., exactly the same region where the most unusual temperature records were observed in 2023. [Albedo being the reflection of sunlight back off the earth, so that it never accumulates as heat.]

"It's conspicuous that the eastern North Atlantic, which is one of the main drivers of the latest jump in global mean temperature, was characterized by a substantial decline in low-altitude clouds not just in 2023, but also—like almost all of the Atlantic—in the past 10 years." 

It appears global warming itself is reducing the number of low clouds.

"If a large part of the decline in albedo is indeed due to feedbacks between global warming and low clouds, as some climate models indicate, we should expect rather intense warming in the future. We could see global long-term climate warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius sooner than expected to date."

via Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: Helge F. Goessling, Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo, Science (2024). DOI: 10.1126/science.adq7280.