Showing posts with label sociothermo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sociothermo. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Network Science 4th Dimension


Last installment of the network science series. Forget the AI takeover, we're already mindless automatons (but don't tell the free will enthusiasts).

A physics explanation shows why US elections keep ending 50:50—and why more spending won't change that
Apr 2026, phys.org

A spending threshold in US House races of roughly 1.8 million USD per campaign limits outcomes. Below it, social dynamics shape outcomes. Above it — on both sides — elections systematically trend toward a draw, no matter how much either party ultimately spends, while driving polarization higher. ... When both parties spend over 1.8 million USD, social influence becomes negligible and the election very often ends in a close race.

Further, on incumbents: The researchers put a number on this structural advantage. Even if the incumbent spends nothing, a challenger must invest roughly 140,000 USD just to neutralize the baseline incumbency effect. When the incumbent spends around 900,000 USD, the challenger still faces a disadvantage equivalent to about 20% of total campaign cost, purely as a consequence of the system's phase structure, not the incumbent's individual qualities.

via Complexity Science Hub Vienna: Jan Korbel et al, Empirical Validation of the Polarization Transition in a Double-Random Field Model of Elections, Physical Review Letters (2026). DOI: 10.1103/9gjj-1df6. 

On arXiv: DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2510.00612

Image credit: A fungus Talaromyces purpureogenus known for its red, diffused pigment
Wim van Egmond - Nikon Small World Photomicrography Competition - 2025


From public kissing to talking during movies, a simple formula predicts moral norms across cultures
Apr 2026, phys.org

"An implication of our simple formula is that norms for one behavior can inform us about norms for a very different behavior. For example, the more okay it is to kiss in the street (a behavior that elicits concerns about purity), expect it to be less okay to beat children (which instead elicits concerns about harm)."

Moral Flavors Model = TC(B) + MF(B) x MT(S) 
  • TC - total concern that behavior B is seen to elicit
  • MF - moral flavor either individualizing type (harm, fairness) or binding type (purity, authority, loyalty)
  • MT - moral taste measures emphasis of individualizing concerns over binding concerns

via Institute for Future Studies in Sweden: Kimmo Eriksson et al, Same flavours, different taste buds: a theory for predicting social norms for specific behaviours across cultures, Journal of the Royal Society Interface (2026). DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.1122.

Post Script - List of Morally Contentious Behaviors
  • claiming government benefits to which you are not entitled
  • avoiding a fare on public transport
  • stealing property
  • cheating on taxes
  • accepting a bribe 
  • homosexuality
  • prostitution
  • abortion
  • divorce
  • sex before marriage
  • suicide
  • euthanasia
  • for a man to beat his wife
  • parents beating children
  • violence against other people
  • terrorism as a political, ideological or religious mean
  • having casual sex
  • political violence
  • the death penalty
--World Values Survey Wave 7 data (2017–2021) for 42 societies; Minkov M, Kaasa A. 2022 Do dimensions of culture exist objectively? A validation of the revised Minkov-Hofstede model of culture with World Values Survey items and scores for 102 countries. J. Int. Manag. 28, 100971. doi:10.1016/j.intman.2022.100971


How deceptive content reached millions of voters during the 2020 US elections
Apr 2026, phys.org

(Note that Facebook was directly involved in this research, so assume you are being intentionally deceived by this data, at least to some extent, and in an attempt to make Facebook look better than they are)

They focused on 49 deceptive networks that targeted adult Facebook and Instagram users in the US during the 2020 election, both disincentivized networks of users who engaged in inaccurate political discourse and financially motivated networks disseminating content that is largely dismissed as spam or clickbait. 13 out of the 49 identified were "coordinated inauthentic behavior networks", and the remaining 36 networks were found to be financially motivated (by advertising). They were organized by characteristics like where they originated, how many accounts they ran, and what they posted about, as well as by activity and reach.

The networks were measured to have reached about 40 million users, or 15% of the overall network, and were highly concentrated - only 3 of the 49 networks accounted for over 70% of all the users reached. One of which was an account called "Rally Forge' created in the US. (It's really fucking frustrating, in this case for example, to try and get the list of the ** other 2 ** networks, but we can't because it's behind a paywall; a paywall that we already paid for with our tax dollars. And yet we then turn around and give it all away for free to the same companies so they can gobble it up into their too fat, too slow, and too stupid artificial intelligence engines.)

So anyway, here's the important part:
Networks reached most of their audience not directly, but because ordinary users — people unaffiliated with the networks — reshared their content. The network with the highest reach, for example, reached about 1.3 million users directly, but 13 million indirectly through reshares by ordinary users. (That's 10 times more people, for the mathematically challenged among us) ... They suggest that interventions that only target deceptive networks might be insufficient, as regular users are also contributing to the dissemination of misleading content.

So, if you are one of these impact layer people who get hit first, and none of us could really know if that's us because the inauthentic group networks are hidden by design, then by simply using the platform, ie sharing articles with your friends, you are doing up to ten times the work of the company, the group, trying to advertise or influence - we are literally working for them, for free, by taking the attention of our friends and giving it to them, so we are exploiting our own social network for their benefit, likely lessening our own social capital for their increasing financial capital 

One last thing:
Interestingly, the researchers observed that financially motivated networks, which some previous studies dismissed or considered less impactful in the context of elections, produced a substantial amount of political content. Moreover, the content they disseminated often reached far more users than the posts shared across politically motivated networks. (In other words, election financing things like Citizens United, where anyone, anywhere, using otherwise hidden money, also called dark money, can purchase otherwise democratic election campaigns and the candidates they support.)

via Stanford University, Meta, University of Pennsylvania: Ruth E. Appel et al, How deceptive online networks reached millions in the US 2020 elections, Nature Human Behaviour (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41562-026-02435-2.


Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Network Science 3rd Dimension


Continuing the network science installment, this group of articles reveals some of the more nefarious considerations, and even applications, of the scientific method in the employ of manipulating human activity at a large scale. 

Sharper brains switch to a 'not what you know, but who you know' mindset online and on social media, study shows
May 2026, phys.org

It's pretty fascinating - The irony of how social media platforms literally need you to be less social in order to engage with more content, almost like it's content vs people - almost like it's financial capital vs social capital, and we are being influenced to give up the social capital for sure. The more of your social capital I can take from you, the less you will be able to avoid my taking your financial capital. It's how I drink your milkshake, as they say. 

It seems the problem is that in the end, we the users of social media applications somehow end up with less of both. 

"When you follow someone on LinkedIn, join a Facebook group, or become a member of an online community, you might assume you will learn more about the content they share. Paradoxically, our study suggests the opposite happens, as individuals channel their mental energy away from knowledge gathering to mapping the social landscape, noting people's individual connections and the wider network.

"Interestingly, this shift was exhibited more among people with greater working memory capacity, so the sharper you are cognitively the more likely you are to tune that content out."

The research involved around 1,000 adults aged between 18 and 77 across five experiments. In each study, participants engaged with simulated social media environments, such as joining groups, following pages, or becoming friends with others. Their exposure to content, as well as their memory for both content ("who knows what") and social connections ("who knows who"), was then assessed.

"This pattern reflects a cognitive trade-off. Rather than encoding information itself, individuals increasingly track who possesses the information. It indicates that people engage with and use the social network like an external hard drive for the brain." 

"The strength of this switch also appears to be determined by working memory capacity. Individuals with higher working memory capacity showed a more than 50% reduction in content recall, but a dramatic increase (over 150%) in accuracy in tracking social connections after forming connections to others. 

University of Bristol, University at Buffalo, State University of New York: Esther Kang et al, Tracking connections, not content: How working memory shapes content and social learning in online networks, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.jesp.2026.104925

Image credit: Slime mold Arcyria major releasing spores by Henri Koskinen - Nikon Small World Photomicrography Competition - 2025


The 'private solution trap': Why richer countries may favor adaptation over public solutions, and who pays
Mar 2026, phys.org

The Private Solution Trap - Participants given higher budgets (representing wealthier nations) consistently contributed more to private solutions (like flood mitigation) than those given lower budgets, while they also contributed proportionally less to public solutions (reducing greenhouse gases). Inequality within groups therefore dramatically increased over the course of the game.

"The data clearly shows this is a problem that exists above culture."
 
via University of Nottingham: Eugene Malthouse et al, The private solution trap in collective action problems across 34 nations, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2504632123


Scientists call out health-harming corporations driving rise in chronic disease
Mar 2026, phys.org

This is straight memetics, and how ideas spread, or don't spread, and how to modulate that spread:

Globally, five commercial products are key factors in 31% of all deaths each year:
8m - Fossil fuels
7m - Tobacco 
2m - Ultra-processed foods
2m - Chemicals used in commerce and pesticides
2m - Alcohol

"Clinicians, the public, the media and policymakers need to understand that these health-harming industries all apply the same set of tactics used by 'Big Tobacco' to create uncertainty about the harms of their products, delay regulation and therefore continue to profit from their sale"

via University of Sydney and the Center to End Corporate Harm at UC San Francisco: Corporations as Vectors of Noncommunicable Disease—Using Internal Industry Documents to Identify Preventive Strategies, New England Journal of Medicine (2026). DOI: 10.1056/NEJMms2507028


Can you trust a finding? A new project maps which studies replicate
Mar 2026, phys.org

News about the news: Findings from the Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) program - a collaborative effort involving 865 researchers - have been published in Nature as a collection of three papers alongside a release of five additional preprints. The SCORE program offers new empirical evidence on the reproducibility, robustness, and replicability of research across the social and behavioral sciences, and the predictability of replicability.

The SCORE team sampled claims from 3,900 papers published from 2009 to 2018 in 62 journals spanning criminology, economics, education, finance, health, management, marketing, organizational behavior, psychology, political science, public administration, and sociology. These claims were subjected to a variety of methods of credibility assessment.

[This writeup also reports findings from 5 more articles that are still pre-prints]

Transparency - Data was available for only 24% of a sample of 600 assessed papers. For the 143 papers that were subjected to reproduction tests, 74% successfully reproduced at least approximately and 54% precisely. Reproducibility was highest for papers where both original data and code were shared, and lowest when reanalysis required reconstructing the original dataset from public sources.

Uncertainty - For each of 100 papers, at least five independent analysts tested the same question with the same data, applying their own decisions about how to best analyze the data. ... 74% of analyses were reported to arrive at the same conclusion as in the original investigation; 24% to no effects/inconclusive result, and 2% to the opposite effect as in the original investigation.

More - Human assessments are reasonably accurate at predicting replication outcomes, but of the automated methods of eliciting predictions from machines about the replicability of findings (Synthetic Markets, MACROSCORE, and A+), none were consistently effective. 

General Findings - For reproducibility specifically, there were substantial differences in data availability that were associated with higher reproducibility rates in Economics and Political Science compared with other fields.

led by Pennsylvania State University, TwoSix Technologies, and the University of Southern California: Visit the website for an overview of the SCORE program, via Nature. https://www.cos.io/score

Monday, June 15, 2026

Network Science 2nd Dimension


Continuing the network science installment, this time with Hyper Fleck Information Space. 

Mate choice: How social trends influence mate diversity
Feb 2026, phys.org

If everyone performed "mate copying" behavior, then diversity would decline. This is what happens instead:

Conformity: Here, the majority follows the trend. The model shows that this can paradoxically lead to the fixation of traits that have a lower biological quality. A rarer, actually fitter type then has little chance of asserting itself against the established social trend.

Anti-conformity: If individuals deliberately copy the minority, diversity in the population remains stable.

This new model makes it possible to identify the "critical copying probability." This threshold value marks the point at which social information overrides natural selection. If around 40% of the population follows the example of other individuals when choosing a mate, a biologically inferior type can suddenly dominate the group.

The study emphasizes that evolution is not determined by genes alone. It is also shaped by the way information flows and is processed within a community. 

via University of Würzburg: Srishti Patil et al, Phenotypic polymorphism via mate copying, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2510849123

Image credit: Slime mold Arcyria denudata by Frederic Labaune - Nikon Small World Photomicrography Competition - 2025


Personal change thresholds may explain why popular policies fail to spread
Mar 2026, phys.org

Some people will try a new idea the moment they hear about it. Others wait until everyone else is doing it. In survey experiments, participants repeatedly chose between options such as energy policies or messaging apps while seeing different levels of social support for each one. Based on these choices, the team estimated each participant's personal threshold for change. "This approach lets us infer individual tipping points."

Using extensive simulations on real social networks, they compared different strategies for "seeding" change. They found that strategies combining two types of information — social network structure and individual thresholds for change — consistently outperformed approaches based on only one of these factors.

In scenarios where individuals with high thresholds were less responsive to targeting, the most effective strategy was to target those individuals connected to many others who were already close to adopting the change.

In settings where targeting is costly, as in online influencer marketing, the best results came from more sophisticated algorithms that took both network structure and individual thresholds into account.

"By identifying who needs just a little nudge and how influence spreads through social networks, interventions can be designed to have a much larger impact."

via University of Zurich: Radu Tănase et al, Integrating behavioural experimental findings into dynamical models to inform social change interventions, Nature Human Behaviour (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41562-026-02417-4


Bell-bottoms today, miniskirts tomorrow: Math reveals fashion's 20-year cycle
Mar 2026, phys.org

The 20-year-rule in fashion; it's true and it's here: 
Analyzing roughly 37,000 images of women's clothing spanning from 1869 to 2025, taken from the historical sewing patterns of the Commercial Pattern Archive at the University of Rhode Island, and identifying datapoints (literal points on the pictures) of eyes, neckline, waistline, hemline, feet to measure the fashion trends. 

It's one of the most comprehensive quantitative datasets of fashion ever assembled.

Also - "The system intrinsically wants to oscillate" ... and in this case, that oscillation is between the tension between wanting to stand out while still fitting in; once a style becomes too common, designers move away from it—but not so far that the clothes become unwearable.

But not anymore, apparently - One of the clearest patterns involves hemline length; skirt lengths have repeatedly shortened and lengthened; but starting in the 1980s, the data show a wider range of skirt lengths appearing at the same time, suggesting that fashion trends are becoming more fragmented, and rather than one dominant trend, niches emerge, reflecting more diversity in fashion.

via Northwestern: Emma Zajdela, "Back in Fashion: Modeling the Cyclical Dynamics of Trends," of the session "Statistical Physics of Networks and Complex Society Systems" at the American Physical Society Global Physics Summit in Denver, March 17 2026


A new way to detect breakthroughs in science: Large-scale analysis reveals 'disruptive' innovations in research history
Mar 2026, phys.org

Hyper Fleck Infospace - Using a machine-learning technique known as neural embedding, the researchers built a map of approximately 55 million scientific papers and patents. Each paper is represented by two points—one reflecting the research it built upon, another reflecting the research it inspired. When a paper is truly disruptive, these two points are far apart, meaning it redirected future research away from what came before it. Unlike other disruption indexes, it is sensitive to broader contexts and can better identify "simultaneous discoveries."

(This below is from the paper proper)

"Bibliometric Data Artifacts"

Here, we introduce an embedding-based measure that captures the extent to which a scientific work redirects the research trajectory. 

Our approach embeds each paper in a high-dimensional space reflecting its direct and indirect connections to prior and subsequent work. Just like neural language models that represent tokens and sentences as vectors, we imagine each paper as a vector that captures its intellectual “position.” We then train two distinct vectors for each paper in the same embedding space: one representing its past, or “antecedents,” context—the configuration of prior work it draws upon—and another representing its future, or “descendants,” context—the body of work it gives rise to. When a contribution substantially reshapes the trajectory connecting past to future, or initiates a new stream of research, these two contexts diverge; the distance between them therefore captures the extent to which subsequent work departs from the prior knowledge.

...As a reference point, we use the disruption index (“CD index”) (15, 16), a widely used indicator that uses the topology of local citation network. The disruption index captures how subsequent work diverges from earlier foundations, focusing on whether later papers cite the predecessors of a focal contribution through direct citation links.

...Using a dataset of more than 55 million scientific papers from the Web of Science (WoS) and the American Physical Society (APS), we show that our measure—“Embedding Disruptiveness Measure” (EDM)—provides a continuous, high-resolution view of how scientific contributions reconfigure the relationship between inherited knowledge and emerging directions. 

...If the embedding model is trained such that the proximity between the vectors indicates higher connections between their papers, and if disruptive papers tend to eclipse the future knowledge from the past, making future knowledge less rely on the past, we expect that a paper’s past and future vectors diverge as the paper’s disruptiveness increases. Thus, by quantifying the distance between these two vectors—representing the past and future context of each paper—we can estimate their disruptiveness. 

Simultaneous disruption - To understand why some of the landmark papers have such low D scores, resulting in a bimodal distribution of D, we examine the top 10 papers with the largest difference between the disruption index score D and the EDM score (delta). We found that all 10 papers are related to the notable examples of simultaneous disruption.

via State University of New York Binghamton University and Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research, Luddy School of Informatics, Indiana University: Uncovering simultaneous breakthroughs with a robust measure of disruptiveness, Science Advances (2026). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adx3420


Sunday, June 14, 2026

Network Science 1st Dimension

 

We're starting a series of articles about network science. There's been a lot in the news this past several months, and so there's a handful more of these posts to come. As expected, some of this comes from Northeastern, home of the Barabasi Labs that brought us network science proper, at the same time actual social networks were forming, not yet Facebook, but more like Napster, etc., circa 2001. Then there's the Santa Fe Institute and the Vienna Complexity Hub, both institutions focusing on complexity theory, which often includes network science.

If you want to know how ideas spread, or how to control an entire population in six easy steps, this is where you start. Just remember, we don't really have fake people yet, but we're almost there. And when we do, all this science will be used, by them, against us. 


Mapping out the hidden mechanics behind why some fads spread like wildfire
Nov 2025, phys.org

It's group pair interactions all the way down: As pairs of people meet up, the contagious illness or behavior can spread between them. As these two people then interact in groups, either together or separately, this helps to spread it further. The more groups they are in, the further the infection is likely to travel. They found that the higher the overlap of these groups, the easier it is to start an epidemic.

Just read that paper title.

via Northeastern University Network Science Institute in London: Disentangling the Role of Heterogeneity and Hyperedge Overlap in Explosive Contagion on Higher-Order Networks, Physical Review Letters (2025). DOI: 10.1103/z3d5-94zb

Image credit: Slime mold Cribraria purpurea by Igor Rudkovsky - Nikon Small World Photomicrography Competition - 2025


Cuisines can be broken down into simple 'culinary fingerprints,' research finds
Nov 2025, phys.org

This is NOT from the people who brought you the original Food Network, the scientists at Northeastern's Barabasi Labs, but a different group entirely:

The Fingerprints:
  • Indian food had the central component of spices in its recipes, 
  • "New World" countries such as the United States, Canada and Australia are "more homogenized", maybe because of the strong immigration cultural blending
  • Scandinavian cuisine shows significantly lower usage of vegetables, herbs, and plants  

The Recipe Data:
  • 23 cuisines from Thai to Eastern European
  • 45,661 recipes made up of 604 ingredients, simplified to 20 network groupings

via Network Science Institute, University of Catania in Italy, Savitribai Phule Pune University in India, Central European University in Austria, CENTAI Institute in Turin and Complexity Science Hub in Austria: Claudio Caprioli et al, The networks of ingredient combinations as culinary fingerprints of world cuisines, arXiv (2024). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2408.15162


Climate policies can backfire by eroding 'green' values, study finds
Dec 2025, phys.org

Santa Fe Institute does memetics: They surveyed more than 3,000 Germans representative of the country's demographics, asking about climate policies and for comparison COVID-19 policies. Restrictions that promote carbon-neutral behavior, like urban car bans, may trigger strong negative reactions — even among people who would voluntarily choose sustainable lifestyles. They found a 52% greater negative response to climate mandates than to COVID-19 mandates.

^Which is hard to believe considering how unrelentingly pissed off people got about covid restrictions.

"The science and technology to provide a low-carbon way of life is nearly solved. What's lagging behind is a social–behavioral science of effective and politically viable climate policies." Mandate resistance was less for people who felt that policies were effective, didn't restrict their freedom of choice, and were not intrusive on their privacy or their body.

via Santa Fe Institute: Katrin Schmelz et al, An empirically based dynamic approach to sustainable climate policy design, Nature Sustainability (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01715-5

*Katrin Schmelz is SFI Complexity Postdoctoral Fellow, behavioral economist and psychologist who also holds an Associate Professorship at the Technical University of Denmark.


People swear on social media more with acquaintances than with friends — analysis can help detect fake profiles
Dec 2025, phys.org

Americans use the f-word more frequently on social media than Australians or Britons, but Australians are more creative in its use. To account for the heterogeneity of social media communication, the study first identified more than 2,300 spelling variants of the f-word in the dataset. 

The research team analyzed social media updates and Twitter networks from 2006–2023, covering nearly half a million individuals in thousands of social networks, from Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. and including metadata such as location and other contextual information. Then they assessed how closely or loosely connected people were. 

Results:
  • Tendency to use the f-word clearly increases with acquaintances when compared with close friends
  • Swearing was rare in very small social networks of less than 15 people, regardless of how close-knit they were, suggesting that network size is a key determinant of swearing
  • But the distinction between friends and acquaintances became irrelevant when the network size reached around 100–120 people; earlier research shows trust is stronger in small networks than in larger ones, with the distinction at roughly one hundred members.

And why is this important you ask?

AI can easily produce text. Instead, researchers should also examine the networks within which language is being used. "These networks are extremely difficult to fake because they create a digital fingerprint for each user. They reflect a user's previous social media behavior, making profiles identifiable." Combining these data with, e.g., swear word usage frequency within a particular network, can help determine whether an account is real or not.

via University of Eastern Finland: Mikko Laitinen et al, Do we swear more with friends or with acquaintances? F#ck in social networks, Lingua (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.lingua.2025.103931


Scientists use string theory to crack the code of natural networks
Jan 2026, phys.org

Get the heck outta here.

"There seems to be a universal rule governing the formation of biological networks. This optimization rule is purely geometric. It does not care about types of materials or tasks, and it turns out to be quite universal and applicable to many different datasets."

"We were treating these structures like wire diagrams. But they're not thin wires, they're three-dimensional physical objects with surfaces that must connect smoothly." It turns out they follow rules borrowed from an unlikely source: string theory.

The work represents the first time string theory — a framework developed to unify quantum mechanics and gravity — has successfully described real biological structures. 

via Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and Albert-László Barabási: Surface optimization governs the local design of physical networks, Nature (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09784-4. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09784-4
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09784-4


Thursday, May 14, 2026

In the Midst of Things - The Social Life of Objects in Public Spaces


by Mike Owen Benediktsson, Princeton University Press, 2022 

First, there is a note, on the second to last page, on the typography used in the book, and that it's Adobe Text and Gotham, and that "Gotham, inspired by New York street signs, was designed by Tobias-Frere-Jones for Hoefler and Co.; something I've never seen before.

  • "We shape our buildings, and after, our buildings shape us." -Winston Churchill
  • The "informal proxemics" of the street vs Covid lockdown (on his writing this book during covid) pxi
  • "What we generally do not see, is that [manmade] objects have ideas in them ... Sometimes, the ideas that are designed into objects are oriented on individual human users. Other times, they involve social norms or relationships ... ." p1
  • public objects vs private possessions p2

This book is so beautifully organized:
1. Appearance - Public Lawn, Folding Chair
2. Disruption - Traffic Divider, Subway Door
3. Disappearance - Newsstand, Bench

  • This book seems to be (or I want it to be) about the trans-substantiation of material objects into ideas, policies, laws, etc., something about dematerialization and "the objects as intermediary" between the physical and the social ~p3
  • "Material Sociology" which he says "is not really a thing" p3
  • Objects "fix the contents" of society, George Simmel p4
  • "Obviously, objects enter into our social consciousness practically every day. They are useful metaphors - they make abstract social processes more concrete. We communicate using an everyday poetry that links material things in our social world, without thinking about why these linguistic shortcuts work. We know that the "white collar worker" or "pencil-pusher" is different from the "blue-collar worker" or "hardhat." The "latte-sipping elitist" is different from "Joe sixpack." The "white tablecloth banquet" is different from the "brown bag lunch." Social structure is not something we can easily see or feel, so we refer to its material correlates, in a form of metonymy." p4
  • "Affordances" are "the ideas objects have about us" [this sounds much like Kevin Kelly's What Technology Wants and Richard Dawkins' Selfish Gene, aka We Don't Wear Earrings. Earrings Wear Us]; "the behavioral possibilities that are endorsed by an object or places." "Affordances do not exist inside of an object, but in the relationship between an object and a person" p4-5
  • "Programming" is the act of embedding affordances in an object or place ... used to suggest what should be done (or not done). p5
  • Once programmed into the material surfaces of an object or a place, affordances can become physically coercive in their control over human behavior p5
  • "Symbolic Programming" are signs and labels that reinforce intended behavior. p5
  • "Institutional Programming" is typically invisible; they may be written down, but most likely are simply known by users. ... it implies a third party who provides incentives and sanctions, such as a property owner, an anonymous stranger, a neighbor, or the government. "Sidewalks because they are public, are institutionally programmed, or regulated, in a way that one's living room is not." ... when they're effective, they're invisible. p6
  • When public objects fail, they disrupt the social order (repurposing Harold Garfunkel) p6
  • All blueprints are blueprints for human behavior (from Thomas Gieryn)
  • Design professionals translate social context into material form. p7
  • In the real world, after a thing is built, and real people show up: The "potential environment" envisioned by the designers and planners is supplanted by the "effective environment" created through human use. (these terms invented by sociologist Herbert Gans) p8
  • Home telephones were initially intrusive. p8
  • The real test is when an object enters the sociological wilderness of unpredictable, everyday life. p9
  • Entropy! footnote 22
  • Some public objects reveal their broader importance to a community when threatened or removed. p11
  • The subway pole is the fireman's pole is the stripper pole. Things are given meaning by the place in which they're found. p13
  • Public objects are Rosetta stones, decoding the sociology of urban life. p16
  • "The social role of material objects is invisible under most circumstances." p16
  • On the Traffic Divider (the Social Divider!) p18
  • On the Subway Door - "informal infrastructure," i.e., passenger etiquette: disruptions beget behavioral engineering [nice word], like turnstyles. p18-19
  • "These spaces are physically open, but sociologically closed, earmaked for certain kinds of rituals." p24
  • Olmstead on public lawns and the single most important benefit provided by an urban park, "escape from the cramped, confined and controlling circumstances of the streets of the town: in other words, a sense of enlarged freedom." He wanted no fences and no walls around his parks, so you could see right through them from one side to the other. (Olmstead, 1866) p24
  • The lawn, originally represented exclusivity and privilege, costly to maintain, and visible from outside the house ... "grass externalizes and manifests socioeconomic status" p33
  • Ownership vs Usership - this is where the condos in the park of One Brooklyn Bridge Park were advertised to a specific sub-population who would use it in a specific way. They won't own the property, but they do, sort-of, because what it affords is accessible to and desired by them. p36
  • The folding chair "is an expression of trust in the urban society itself'. p61
  • The Wiley-Smartz NYC DOT Public Space Unit put maintenance under local partners, not the city, to avoid a race to the bottom. p61
  • 2013 "desnudas" in Times Square (naked women with painted-on bikinis). Totally legal btw. By 2015 he says it was being called a strip club without walls because men would line up their chairs and watch for hours. ... also considering "Times Square as a mecca of tourism and unrestrained commercialism", it was hard to avoid. p65-66
  • Single men are limited in their use fo public space; in playgrounds and ball fields they look like predators. p70
  • When La Plaza de las Americas in Washington Heights was opened, "They knew what to do here" [says a park inhabitant when interviewed] because they had plazas in the countries where they came from. p73
  • Social activity itself discourages disorder and encourages informal social control (like Jane Jacobs' eyes on the street) p81
  • [I see "White" people capitalized for the first time (2022)] p85
  • "Flexible public space is an expression of trust in urban society. But not all communities trust themselves." p90
  • There's a great and illustrative picture on p 102 that shows the walking path along Black and White Horse Pike in South Jersey, with a 55 MPH speed limit sign, mangled by an 18-wheeler probably going a lot faster than 55. He also uses the word "fear lines" in opposition to "desire lines" ~p106
  • "There exists an entire world of inconvenience and humiliation for the pedestrian users of this space." p108
  • And he makes reference to upstairs/downstairs and front/back of the house "vibrating w programmatic conflict" 
  • Infrastructure becomes visible when it breaks. p109 ft 25 SL Star...
  • Signs and symbols act to clarify the program embedded in a materials object, or to specify a legally endorsed pattern of behavior. They act as a stopgap in cases where the built environment is deemed insufficiently legible by the people or institutions who are responding to programmatic conflict. p114
  • [We domesticate technology, through recursion from raw tech to normative infst] ~p126
  • "feral technology" p131
  • He's talking about sociothermodynamics, the space and the mental organization of behavior in it, by it, is what causes altercations; it's not the personalities of the people, it's the space they're in and how it's designed (like people waiting for a train that's late, or trying to fit on a train that's crowded), and he says one of the causes is "temporal ambiguity" in the breakdown of normative infrastructure. p150-152
  • [personal thought] graffiti on buses (and subways) pre-dated advertisements on buses
  •  (I didn't jux these, it was him, but I think its cool)
  • The newsstand - more than just an amenity for anonymous pedestrians - an integral part of the social fabric of a block. p183
  • ...a city loses something when people stop asking for directions. 
  • The "benevolent friction" of the newsstand p186

The Bench - this is why I bought the book. I inhabit New York City often, and use mass transit infrastructure, which includes the stations, but which themselves do not include places to sit, and I've often wondered about how treating homeless people like shit actually leads to treating just about everyone like shit, because I'm not homeless, but after working on my feet for 14 hours, and facing a possible 2-hour commute home, I'd really like to sit down in the train station while I wait for my delayed or cancelled train.

  • The Bench at Trump Tower - Which brings us to the matter of the bench. Public spaces are subject to a set of design provisions - among them, a stipulation that they contain ample public seating. Originally, the atrium contained a large marble bench, where the black metal benches currently sit; in order to satisfy this requirement. However, once he had benefitted from the bonus plaza provision, Trump began to undercut the public function of the space, repeatedly closing the atrium for private events and instructing his private security guards to deny public access, a pattern that drew the attention of city regulators. In 1984, Philip Schneider, of the New York City Planning Department, paid an unannounced visit to the atrium of Trump Tower and found the large marble bench covered with flowerpots that prevented its intended use. ... Eventually, after thousands of dollars in fines, Trump removed the flowerpots. Later, however, the marble bench disappeared entirely. In its place a massive kiosk of wood and glass labeled "Trump Store" appeared ... [Commercial structures in privately owned public space require permitting.] After the court ruled against Trump, the kiosk vanished. ... The black bench appeared in its place. p192-194
  • Why bother thinking about everyday objects? The bench offers an answer: it suggests that there are no social forces, no crosscurrents of political or cultural upheaval so lofty and so remote that they do not produce telling reverberations in the material world. p194-195
  • Reframed this way, the story of the bench does not just embody a broader drama pitting private interest against public well being. It illustrates the ability of materials objects to translate such drama into something far less grand, but also more tangible and more immediate. ... social control, inequality, unpredictability of material things in public spaces, interactions between the social and the material. p195
  • When we engage with public objects, we typically make small decisions, or no decisions at all. p196 [that's why it can be called invisible]
  • Things Exert Social Control - it's a section title, but my reason for reading a book like this. p197
  • Power emerges more clearly into view via the aggregation of small-scale everyday encounters between people and things. p197
  • He uses the word polysemic (p199), and that's the only time I've ever seen it written. 

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Self Assortment and Superconductive Sociality


The second to last post is what I call Peak Fleck because it sounds a lot like a quantified version of what he described in his book Genesis and Development of a Scientific Fact (1930s), the book which went on to influence Kuhn's Scientific Revolution (1962), which itself introduced the word "paradigm" as we now use it. The rest of these articles are along the same lines. 


How the loss of experienced individual elephants stops knowledge transfer between generations
May 2025, phys.org

Elephants rely heavily on elder members to navigate their environments, find resources, and avoid predators. The research highlighted that the presence of older, knowledgeable individuals—especially matriarchs—improves calf survival rates and enhances group decision-making. Without these elders, populations often face long-term setbacks.

"Elders are the keepers of knowledge in elephant societies. Their loss disrupts the transmission of essential survival skills, much like losing a library in human terms. Conserving these social ties is as important as protecting their physical habitats."

via University of Portsmouth's Center for Comparative and Evolutionary Psychology: Lucy Bates et al, Knowledge transmission, culture and the consequences of social disruption in wild elephants, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2024.0132



Collective memory loss in herring results in 800 km shift in spawning grounds
May 2025, phys.org

Previous research has indicated that age-selective fishing targeting older fish can disrupt cultural transmission, fragmenting established migration routes.

Analysis of fisheries records, acoustic-trawl surveys, and tagging data indicated a substantial northward migration, with the center of spawning activity shifting approximately 800 km from Møre to Lofoten.

Now that a new migratory pattern has emerged, reinforced by collective migration memory, restoring historical patterns may be impossible.

via Institute of Marine Research in Norway: Aril Slotte et al, Herring spawned poleward following fishery-induced collective memory loss, Nature (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08983-3


The hidden mechanics of abrupt transitions: Superconducting networks show how tiny changes trigger system collapse
Jul 2025, phys.org

They're looking at interdependent superconducting networks and found a hidden spontaneous sequence of micro-scale events that gradually destabilize a system until it snaps.

When this system approaches a "critical" points, it doesn't transition smoothly from a superconducting state to a resistive one. Instead, the system lingers, for hundreds of seconds, in a long-lived intermediate phase. Then, without further prompting, it abruptly transitions into the new state. 

At the heart of this behavior is a concept known as the branching factor—a term that gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic. It represents the average number of new changes triggered by each event. When the branching factor is less than one, the cascade quickly dies out. If it exceeds one, the process accelerates uncontrollably.

via Bar-Ilan University, Northeastern, and CEU Vienna: Bnaya Gross et al, The random cascading origin of abrupt transitions in interdependent systems, Nature Communications (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61127-z


Why your friends may be more susceptible to social influence than you are
Jul 2025, phys.org

Good nuance being added here, and it's so counter-intuitive, or just plain confusing, that it should probably knock off right away most people who try to understand it. 

The Susceptibility Paradox - users' friends are more influenceable than the users themselves

"It's not just about who you are - it's about where you are in a network, and who you're connected to"

Researchers looked at two kinds of behavior on X/Twitter: influence-driven sharing, when people post something after seeing it from others in their network; and spontaneous sharing, when they post without that exposure. In influence-driven cases, people who were less likely to be influenced were often surrounded by others who were more likely to share what they saw. This mirrors the Friendship Paradox, a finding from network science that says your friends are likely to have more friends than you do.

Homophily was especially strong in influence-driven sharing. People who post because they saw others do it were often part of tight-knit circles with similar behavior.

In many cases, knowing how a user's friends behave was enough to estimate how the user would behave. Spontaneous sharing was different. When people shared content without apparent peer exposure, their decisions were harder to predict from the network alone. 

via University of Southern California Information Sciences Institute: Luca Luceri et al, The Susceptibility Paradox in Online Social Influence, arXiv (2024). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2406.11553

Offline interactions predict voting patterns better than online networks, finds study
Oct 2025, phys.org

Co-location explained 97% of the variance in county-level voting patterns, compared to 85%–87% for online connections and 75%–80% for residential proximity.
  • They used Meta's Data for Good program, which collates anonymized data collected from people who enabled location services on the Facebook smartphone app.
  • Colocation is defined as two people being within the same map tile less than 600×600 meters for at least five minutes.
  • The political affiliation of each person was inferred from their county of residence.
  • Data was compared with Facebook friendships and residential proximity for all U.S. counties, along with individual survey responses from 2,420 Americans regarding their offline and online social networks during the 2020 presidential election.
  • For the residential proximity measurement, the voter registrations of the closest 1,000 neighbors were used.

via University of Trento Italy: Marco Tonin et al, Physical partisan proximity outweighs online ties in predicting US voting outcomes, PNAS Nexus (2025). DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf308


More friends, more division: Study finds growing social circles may fuel polarization
Oct 2025, phys.org

AKA Peak Fleck

  • To measure political polarization, they used 27,000 surveys from the Pew Research Center, and 30 different surveys totaling over 57,000 respondents from Europe and the US, including the General Social Survey (US) and the European Social Survey.
  • Increasing polarization is not merely perceived - it is measurable and objectively occurring; and this increase happened suddenly between 2008 and 2010.
  • -For decades, sociological studies showed that people maintained an average of about two close friends - people who could influence their opinions on important issues."
  • "Around 2008, there was a sharp increase from an average of two close friends to four or five."
  • "When network density increases with more connections, polarization within the collective inevitably rises sharply." 
  • "This finding impressed us greatly because it could provide a fundamental explanation."
  • They refer to it as a phase change (because it's so abrupt).
  • Their explanation: "If I have two friends, I do everything I can to keep them—I am very tolerant towards them. But if I have five and things become difficult with one of them, it's easier to end that friendship because I still have 'backups.' I no longer need to be as tolerant."
"More and more people are clearly aligning themselves with one political camp rather than holding a mixture."

This sounds like Fleck's description, of how the two sides get bigger and stronger and more concentrated until one wins. (He uses the developemnt of the scientific understanding of Syphilis among scientists and among the public.)

via Complexity Science Hub Vienna: Thurner, Stefan, Why more social interactions lead to more polarization in societies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2517530122.


Quantifying social avoidance: Game-based choices reflect real-world relationship patterns and network size
Apr 2025, phys.org

Instead of relying on self-reported behavior, they observed participants taking part in a "choose your own adventure" style game.

"We wanted to test the hypothesis that social avoidance can be understood as a form of navigation within an abstract social space defined by two social dimensions: 'affiliation' (e.g., warmth, friendliness) and 'power' (e.g., dominance, control). We put nearly 800 online participants into the position of having just moved to a new town, with no job, no friends and no place to live, where they had to interact with people and navigate the social situations to accomplish these goals ... Declining to share personal information with a character would reduce the affiliation in the relationship, while complying with an overbearing and direct request from a character would reduce the participant's power." They used a geometry-based approach where participants were placed on a grid defined by affiliation and power, and they measured where and how they moved on the grid.

Results - people higher in self-reported social avoidance consistently made low affiliation and low power choices in our game, as we expected, and the "social distance" participants created between characters in the game they played mirrored their real social lives as described in self-report questionnaires. Specifically, the real-world social networks of participants who created more social distance between characters were found to be smaller and less diverse.

via Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai: Matthew Schafer et al, Social avoidance can be quantified as navigation in abstract social space, Communications Psychology (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s44271-025-00215-8.

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

My Uncle Was a Matrix Multiplier


Turn people into numbers and make them do whatever you want!
 
The secret behind pedestrian crossings—and why some spiral into chaos
Mar 2025, phys.org

If you ever have the desire to just fuck shit up, now you know how:

The researchers found that for order to be maintained, the spread of different directions people walk in must be kept below a critical angle of 13 degrees.

When it comes to pedestrian crossings, this could be achieved by limiting the width of a crossing or considering where a crossing is placed, so pedestrians are less tempted to veer off track towards nearby destinations.

Based on their calculations, the researchers found that pedestrians are more likely to form lanes when pedestrians from opposite directions walk relatively straight across a road. This order largely holds until people start veering across at more extreme angles, of 13 degrees or higher. Then, the equation predicts that the pedestrian flow is likely to be disordered, with few to no lanes forming.

via University of Bath, MIT, and Academy of Physical Education in Katowice in Poland: Bacik, Karol A., Order–disorder transition in multidirectional crowds, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2420697122.



US political rhetoric: Analysis of 8 million speeches shows increased reliance on personal beliefs over facts
Apr 2025, phys.org

Researchers examined political rhetoric in 8 million speeches by members of the US Congress between 1879 and 2022 to see if the focus of their language was more on data and facts or personal convictions and subjective interpretations:
  • 49 keywords for fact-based language - "analyze," "data," "findings" and "investigation"
  • 35 keywords for intuition-based language - "point of view," "common sense," "guess" and "believe"
The team noticed a significant decline in the use of evidence-based political rhetoric since the 1970s, with a historic low in the present. Over the same period, the researchers observed a decline in legislative productivity, an increase in the political polarization of both political parties as well as growing economic inequality in the US.

After 1940, the balance tipped towards facts and peaked in the mid-1970s. From 1976 to 2022, however, there was a significant, continual decline in the use of facts in congressional speeches, with a historic low in the present. Both US parties are affected by this downward trend, although the drop has been even steeper for Republicans since 2021.

"One remarkable aspect of our results is the strong association between evidence-based language and performance. The more speeches in Congress reflect a reliance on evidence and facts rather than intuition, the better the performance of Congress and the less polarization between parties."

In many democracies, there is currently much concern about 'truth decay': the blurring of the boundary between fact and fiction, not only fueling polarization but also undermining public trust in institutions"

via University of Konstanz: Segun T. Aroyehun et al, Computational analysis of US congressional speeches reveals a shift from evidence to intuition, Nature Human Behaviour (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41562-025-02136-2


How agricultural practices and governance have shaped wealth inequality over the last 10,000 years
Apr 2025, phys.org

They're using a new database of 27 scientists from around the world who analyzed about 47,000 houses from more than 1,700 archaeological settlements.

This study looks at wealth inequality and floor space by square footage.

"The emergence of high wealth inequality wasn't an inevitable result of farming. It also wasn't a simple function of either environmental or institutional conditions. It emerged where land became a scarce resource that could be monopolized. At the same time, our study reveals how some societies avoided the extremes of inequality through their governance practices."

They found that in regions with land-intensive farming systems, such as those with specialized animal traction for plowing, high wealth inequality became persistent, with a small number of households controlling productive land. In regions without traction animals, land became highly valued through terracing, irrigation or drainage. While such engineering projects could begin as cooperative endeavors, a minority of households often gained control of these landscapes.

The study shows how high wealth inequality emerged in diverse world regions. If land came under pressure, for example through local population growth, investments like terracing and irrigation or specialized plow animals boosted production, but also made land more valuable, fueling competition. Over time, larger settlements developed as hubs of wider settlement hierarchies and were sustained through land-intensive farming systems.

The findings challenge the idea that high wealth inequality is inevitable. Instead, it was often a localized consequence of expanding societies with a lack of political mechanisms to deal fairly with land constraints. 

via Oxford and Washington State University: Amy Bogaard et al, Labor, land, and the global dynamics of economic inequality, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400694122


Archaeological database reveals links between housing and inequality in ancient world
Apr 2025, phys.org

This goes w the other article - "What we did was we crowdsourced, in a sense," Ortman says. "We put out a request for information from archaeologists working around the world, who knew about the archaeological record of housing in different parts of the world and got them together to design a database to capture what was available from ancient houses in societies all over the world."

They studied 55,000 floor area measurements from across North and South America, Asia, Europe and Africa, back 12,0000 years. 

via Universities of Colorado Boulder, Oxford and Florida: Kohler, Timothy A., Economic inequality is fueled by population scale, land-limited production, and settlement hierarchies across the archaeological record, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400691122. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400691122

GINI Project data, as well as the analysis program developed for them, will be available open access via the Digital Archaeological Record.


Across 50 countries, female faces consistently rank higher in attractiveness than male faces
Jun 2025, phys.org

Female faces received significantly higher attractiveness ratings than male faces, an effect size that the authors describe as medium to large. That difference held across both same-sex and opposite-sex evaluations.

Female raters produced a larger disparity between ratings of male and female faces than male raters did. Male raters tended to give lower attractiveness scores overall, regardless of the gender of the face.

But - Most cultural groups showed the same female-favoring gap. Yet among Sub-Saharan African raters, no significant differences appeared. A similar absence was observed in ratings of African faces, suggesting a cultural or representational divergence not found in other ethnic categories.

via Max Planck Institute for Empirical Aesthetics: Eugen Wassiliwizky et al, The Gender Attractiveness Gap, bioRxiv (2025). DOI: 10.1101/2025.05.21.655261


'Dark' personality traits thrive in societies with corruption and inequality, global study shows
Jun 2025, phys.org

Aversive social conditions (high corruption, inequality, poverty and violence) are linked to what they call "The Dark Factor of Personality." This is the essence of aversive ("dark") personality traits such as narcissism, psychopathy, and sadism.

"The more adverse conditions in a society, the higher the level of the Dark Factor of Personality among its citizens. In societies where rules are broken without consequences and where the conditions for many citizens are bad, individuals perceive and learn that one should actually think of oneself first."

Countries such as Indonesia and Mexico or U.S. states such as Louisiana and Nevada have higher "Dark Factor" levels than countries such as Denmark and New Zealand or states such as Utah and Vermont

"Our findings substantiate that personality is not just something we are born with, but also shaped by the society we grew up and live in." (Reminds me of Sapolsky's book Determined.)

via University of Copenhagen: Ingo Zettler et al, Aversive societal conditions explain differences in "dark" personality across countries and US states, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2500830122


Beyond health: The political effects of infectious disease outbreaks
Jul 2025, phys.org

Individuals who have experienced an infectious disease outbreak show significantly less trust in the political establishment. This is especially true of their confidence in the president, parliament and ruling party of the country they live in.

To evaluate the political impact of these outbreaks, the team combined outbreak data from the Geolocated Zoonotic Disease Outbreak Dataset (GZOD) with geolocated information from the Afrobarometer surveys. The latter database records the political and social attitudes of citizens in several African states through regular surveys, and also includes information about respondents' trust in various political actors. (The Afrobarometer)

"Governments should integrate trust-preservation strategies into their epidemic response plans and make sure their decision-making is transparent, and communication is clear and consistent" (yeah good luck with that).

via University of Konstanz: Koren, Ore, Infectious disease outbreaks drive political mistrust, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2506093122


Rising temperatures linked to declining moods around the world
Aug 2025, phys.org

1.2 billion Twitter and Weibo posts from 157 countries over the span of the year 2019 were analyzed by BERT; research finds that when the temperature rises above 95 F (35 C), expressed sentiments become about 25% more negative in lower-income countries and about 8% more negative in better-off countries.

via MIT's Department of Urban Studies and Planning (DUSP) and Center for Real Estate:  Unequal Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Global Human Sentiment, One Earth (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101422.


Using game theory to explain how institutions arise naturally to manage limited resources
Aug 2025, phys.org

Simple model predicts emergence of self-organized institutions that manage limited resources such as fisheries or irrigation water:

At each step, a person decides whether to harvest. Their decision is based on current fish stocks and how well off they and the other person are.

They have three options: cooperate with the other person by showing restraint in harvesting, punish them by over-harvesting if they feel the other person was selfish, or to act selfishly themselves.

Which category a person's response falls into depends on current fish stocks and their past history of interactions with the other person. (sounds like tit for tat)

via RIKEN Center for Brain Science: Kenji Itao et al, Self-organized institutions in evolutionary dynamical-systems games, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2500960122


Cities obey the same laws of living systems, researchers claim
Aug 2025, phys.org

The difference from the Geoffrey West Santa Fe work, is that there's apparently no efficiency in scaling up:
The scientists examined three variables: urban population (analogous to an animal's mass), carbon emissions (equivalent to the metabolic rate of a living organism) and road networks (the circulatory system).

"When properly rescaled, we found that the probability distributions of these variables follow a unique curve for all cities—large and small—implying that urban form and functions are governed by universal laws similar to those that apply to living organisms."

"Contrary to what's often been claimed, large cities aren't necessarily more sustainable than small ones—what matters is the covariation in space of population density, transport networks, and economic activities, which are all inter-related."

Because of the variation in city sizes, the authors divided each city into smaller units - like "pixels" - and employed a finite-size scaling approach.

via EPFL's Laboratory of Urban and Environmental Systems: Martin Hendrick et al, A stochastic theory of urban metabolism, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2501224122


Why some US cities thrive while others decline: New study uncovers law of economic coherence of cities
Sep 2025, phys.org

650 million U.S. census records, 6 million patents, and other historical sources covering nearly two centuries of urban development.

"We observed that, on average, the cities that make up the U.S urban system transform gradually but surely over time - from craftsmanship and manufacturing to services and engineering. Despite this, they maintain a constant level of coherence for nearly two centuries,"

"This also happened and in the same way on the West Coast, which developed later and initially in isolation from the wider U.S.. In 1850, cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco are just emerging there with the onset of the Gold Rush," although "The transformation was massive–faster and more pronounced than on the East Coast," and "despite rapid diversification, West Coast cities' average coherence remained remarkably constant and at levels that were comparable to those of eastern US cities."

The study also shows that larger cities are consistently less coherent. A highly coherent city tends to have fewer industries that are closely related, like Detroit during its golden age of car-making, while a less coherent city, such as New York City, may span many unrelated sectors.

via Complexity Science Hub Vienna: Simone Daniotti et al, The coherence of US cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2501504122

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Thanks Craigslist


In a fit of irony, I had never heard of this, and nobody I told this to had ever heard it either. This article is about polarization, but it's also about the decline of the news industry, the same industry that didn't do such a good job spreading this particular story over the past several years.


How the rise of Craigslist helped fuel America's political polarization
Aug 2025, phys.org

Craigslist launched in San Francisco in 1995, and over time effectively killed off the humble newspaper classified ad, which in the year 2000, made 30% of their revenues.

Craigslist rolled out in an idiosyncratic city-by-city expansion. This staggered spread created what is known in economics as a natural experiment.

This needs some explanation, so I'm copying most of it:

Looking at more than 1,500 newspapers, the researchers could compare what happened before and after Craigslist arrived, isolating its effects from other factors like the rapid expansion of broadband internet.

Newspaper executives axed a lot of the expensive, "prestige" political coverage that classifieds had subsidized, because it wasn't something readers flocked to, and it cost more to produce than sports or entertainment.

Following the entry of Craigslist in a market, newspapers reduced mentions of politicians competing in local congressional races by an average of 12%. The missing coverage also led to declines in circulation, particularly among readers interested in general news, who tended to be more educated, wealthier, and more politically engaged.

"When they're less informed and they're less likely to get solid information, they tend to go to extremes, because they don't have the information that the extreme candidates are extreme."

Readers who didn't follow politics closely were also affected. "You may not have been reading the newspaper because you wanted to learn about politics, but the stories about politics were bundled together with the things that you did care about."

When local political coverage disappeared, along with it went an important way for many voters to spot the differences between candidates, particularly unknown candidates running in party primaries. In a world of perfect information, extreme candidates would usually lose, because their stances are by definition far from the average voter's. When voters have less information available to ferret out political positions that do not align with their views, they cast more votes for extreme candidates.

"The reduction in staff covering politics made it harder for voters to differentiate between moderates and extremists in partisan primaries, and allowed extreme candidates to do better than they did before." This, in turn, fueled political polarization.

[And I guess this is why the City University of New York announced in 2024 a $10 million gift from Craig Newmark for a tuition-free Graduate School of Journalism.]

via Stanford University Graduate School of Business, Cornell and Ruben National University of Singapore: Milena Djourelova et al, The Impact of Online Competition on Local Newspapers: Evidence from the Introduction of Craigslist, Review of Economic Studies (2024). DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdae049

Image credit: AI Art - A Crowd From View - 2025

Post Script
I'll record here only for personal posterity's sake, a line of reasoning that follows from this - does this mean that advertising (in the form of classifieds) is necessary for democracy? I know Ben Franklin's newspaper in Philadelphia was funded by advertisers. Is it supposed to be government-funded? Sounds like someone needs to take a political science course. 

Post Post Script
This makes the social media problem circa the 2020's even more sinister, since these platforms, some of which are also the largest companies in the world, they're not only taking the advertising dollars from traditional media, but they're also incentivizing the opposite of information (in the form of dis- and mis-information). I mean they don't even employ journalists, nevermind the fact that they propagate on their networks non-news (as in, fake news from fake news outlets created with names to sound similar to reputable news outlets).