Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Merchants of Doubt


by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M Conway, 2010

I couldn't read much into this, because it's too depressing, too infuriating. But some of the best parts of books are at the beginning, so here's some notes.

  • ("They" usually means "Industry", below)
  • When they said the IPCC-II had been "doctored", they were using as evidence revisions made in response to peer review. 
  • Overall, the scientific debate (about smoking and health) wasn't among scientists; there was no debate among scientists. A debate was fabricated, between the industry and scientists, and then made to look to the public like the debate was between scientists. 
  • The Tobacco Strategy they call it. 
  • They find all the bad health effects of smoking, then find all the other things that also cause those same effects, and then amplify the association of those things, and so distract from arguments in court by other expert witnesses. (We also might call that simply Whataboutism)
  • Their law firm advised, "scientific doubt must remain"
  • (Note to self: when an industry is arguing against scientists that their product or service is not bad, just don't believe them, because they're lying, every time. CO2, PFAS, MCAS, you name it.)
  • The pro-tobacco scientists were found testifying as expert witness in asbestos cases where they argued that asbestos, but not tobacco, caused lung cancer(!). 
  • "Industry makes its case by cherry-picking data and focusing on unexplained or anomalous details ... the industry exploited this normal scientific honesty to spin unreasonable doubt." (Their questions weren't illegitimate but disingenuous)
  • After the 1964 US Surgeon's General report Smoking and Health, where the health effects were conclusive, the Tobacco Industry Research Committee changed their name to the Council for Tobacco Research, and then went ape-shit crazy.
  • They ingratiate themselves with "friendly witnesses" by dumping tons of money into research funding grants over decades. [ie expert witness]
  • One of the earlier scientists they used misrepresented his data at UCLA Medical School and was forced to resign; 20 years later he's doing testimony for Big Tobacco. [and probably because he needs the money because he can't make a living as a real scientist because he can't help lying about shit]
  • "Did they deserve equal time? The simple answer is no. While the idea for equal time for opposing opinions makes sense in a two-party political system, it does not work for science, because science is not about opinion. It is about evidence. It is about claims that can be, and have been, tested through scientific research - experiments, experience, and observation - research that is then subject to critical review by a jury of scientific peers. Claims that have not gone through that process - or have gone through it and failed - are not scientific, and do not deserve equal time in a scientific debate." (p32)
  • (Further) "A scientific conclusion becomes established not when a clever person proposes it, or even a group of people begin to discuss it, but when the jury of peers - the community of researchers - reviews the evidence and concludes that it is sufficient to accept the claim." (p33)
  • (And) "Doubt-mongering works because we think science is about facts - cold, hard, definite facts. If someone tells us things are uncertain, we think that means that the science is muddled. This is a mistake. There are always uncertainties in any live science, because science is a process of discovery." (p34)
  • Their Line "The science is too uncertain to justify actions." (No it's not, because that's actually how science works, see below.)
  • Good language in response to this, from the 1983 US Office of Science and Technology Policy, "The incomplete present scientific knowledge sometimes presents the kinds of certainty which scientists would prefer, but there are many indicators which, taken collectively, lead us to our finding that the phenomena of acid deposition ["acid rain"] are real and constitute a problem for which solutions should be sought." (p87)

The Origins of Modern Science


by Herbert Butterfield, 1957

It's always fascinating to be reminded of where our modern thinking came from and how much it evolved. You can't really understand something unless you know where it came from. And you can't appreciate where you are if you don't know how bad things used to be. 

  • First, on Astrology: After reading through the first parts of this book, I have this thought - Astrology is so stupid that even the church fought against it for being nuts, and later, a kind of Streisand Effect; because the church, as the ultimate unquestioned authority of its time, denounced it, people were convinced there must be secrets in there, because "they don't want you to know". It really is like the first snake oil.
  • Next, on the Complete Population Level Mental Damage of Alchemy: It's like the equivalent to an entire population being subjected to heavy metal poisoning. Until 1689, under Henry IV, there was a law that you couldn't multiply gold or silver (because they thought it might be possible; and this reminds me of the AI bubble of the 2020's because people really think it can do the craziest things). 
  • Finally, on Phlogiston Theory: "The entire view was based upon one of those fundamental conclusions of common sense observation which (like Aristotle's view of motion) may set the whole of men's thinking on the wrong track and block scientific progress for thousands of years". And they twisted their heads so far around in trying to make it work that they came up with the idea that phlogiston had negative weight, to explain why an object weighed more by losing it. And let this echo with today's use of Dark Energy in astronomy. But there's more, "Furthermore, the last two decades of the eighteenth century give one of the most spectacular proofs in history of the fact that able men who had the truth under their very noses, and possessed all the ingredients for the solution of the problem - the very men who had actually made the strategic discoveries - were incapacitated by the phlogiston theory from realising the implications of their own work. Although it is true in the history of thought that false ideas or half-truths sometimes act as convoying agency - leading the enquirer to a sounder form of generalisation, and then dropping out of the story when they have fulfilled their purpose - it is still not clear".

  • On the history of the heart, because of studying animals that bled out, they thought the left side blood vessels were filled with air. 
  • On Misinformation, and a bit of Stigler's Law - still regarding the heart, "The mind of Fabricus was so shaped to the teaching of Galen, however, that he missed the whole point of his own discovery, and produced an explanation which left the large question exactly whee it had stood before."

  • What precipitates the paradigm shift? Not necessarily a social revolution, or even a technological revolution, but some plain old chance. "One of these occurrences was the appearance of a new star in 1572 - an event which one historian of science appears to me to be correct in describing as a greater shock to European thought than the publication of the Copernican hypothesis itself. ... In 1577, a new comet appeared ... Quite apart from any attack which Copernicus had made upon the system, the foundations of the Ptolemaic universe were beginning to shake."
  • Here's another: Although it turns out to have been wrong, as far back as Kepler, and influenced by Gilbert's theory of magnetism, gravity was seen as being more like attraction than a "falling back to the earth".
  • And: By 1665, most of the ingredients in Newton's gravitational theory were in existence, though scattered in the writings of different scientists in such a way that no man held them in combination (and this is how it happens, not one man at a time, but one day at a time).

  • Hindu algebra and Greek geometry coming together was the single greatest step in the progress of the exact sciences. 

  • Before science proper, people would *think* through their experiments, and were called "natural philosophers". Not until they had tools to measure their initial conditions and results, did they begin to investigate experimental evidence to support their theory. ... Before, it was enough to think it through very carefully.

  • This part is great. Butterfield, the author, uses as an illustration of the Scientific Revolution a series of eulogies presented by French writer Fontenelle, also secretary of the Academic des Science 1699-1741. He finds a pattern among the scientists' biographies. "It would appear from Fontanelle's biographies that those who joined the movement often sprang from bourgeois families and remarkably often they are the sons of avocats [lawyers], as he himself happened to be. Repeatedly it appears that they had originally been intended for the Church and that their fathers had insisted on giving them an education in theology. But over and over again the same pattern occurs in these biographies - the youth finds the prevailing educational methods irksome, finds that he is being given an education in mere words and not in real things. And then, on repeated occasions, the identical fairy story takes place". And he goes on to describe a series of scientists who were exposed to some theorem or philosophy, changing their life forever ... like older stories of Christian conversions.

  • Whereas "reason" had once been a thing that required to be disciplined by a long and intensive training, the very meaning of the word began to change - now any man could say that he had it, especially if his mind was unspoiled by education and traditional "Reason", in fact, came to signify much more what we today should call common sense. 

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Acid Test


Reading this is like tripping on acid.

Crystals of space and time: A structural phenomenon that may collapse into tiny black holes
May 2026, phys.org

Space and time can form a kind of "crystal" that may turn into a black hole. ... When spacetime organizes itself into a regular, crystal-like structure during a process known as critical collapse. Black holes usually form in spectacular events, such as the death of a massive star. But in theory, arbitrarily small black holes are also possible: tiny microscopic objects that can emerge from special critical states after the slightest addition of energy.

Wait

"This spacetime crystal is a very peculiar and fascinating object," says Grumiller. "It is a kind of intermediate state, an unstable point that can evolve in two different directions. It may simply dissolve again, leaving behind ordinary spacetime filled with freely moving particles. But if a tiny amount of energy is added, the evolution takes a completely different path: the inconspicuous spacetime crystal turns into a black hole."

Not done yet

"Our universe has four dimensions—three dimensions of space and one dimension of time," explains Christian Ecker. "But in principle, nothing prevents us from writing down physical equations for a larger number of dimensions—five dimensions, forty-two dimensions, or even infinitely many."

via Vienna University of Technology: Christian Ecker et al, Analytic Discrete Self-Similar Solutions of Einstein-Klein-Gordon at Large D, Physical Review Letters (2026). DOI: 10.1103/qgl5-5l3t

Image credit: Christopher Payne - Making Dum Dums at Spangler Candy Bryon OH - 2020

Monday, July 20, 2026

The End of the Universe is Right Around the Corner


If you're looking to prepare yourself for the end of the universe, Asimov's The Universe: From Flat Earth to Quasar (1971) is a nice place to start, maybe Herbert Butterfield's The Origins of Modern Science (1949). Maybe you're a bit more anarchic and would rather focus on the "revolutionary" part; then take it from Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962), which should really start with Ludwig Fleck's Genesis and Development of a Scientific Fact (1935). These things don't happen fast, at least not on the scale of a human life. But these days we are seeing things happen fast. Gravity as we know it is having a kind of identity crisis.   

Foundation AI models trained on physics, not words, are driving scientific discovery
Jan 2026, phys.org

"I continue to be awed by the fact that a multi-disciplinary physics foundation model works at all, let alone at this level." 

While most AI models are trained on text and images, this team trains AI on physics, and then applies the knowledge they gain from one class of physical systems to completely different problems.

These are the models:
Walrus  - 15 terabytes of density, velocity and pressure in physical systems like merging neutron stars, acoustic waves and shifting layers in Earth's atmosphere
AION-1 - 100 terabyte astronomical survey of stars, quasars and galaxies 

via University of Cambridge: Michael McCabe et al, Walrus: A Cross-Domain Foundation Model for Continuum Dynamics, arXiv (2025). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2511.15684

Totally unrelated image credit: Monkey with an ice cream cone means something but I'm not sure what - Martin Nicourt for Gibraltar Macaques Project - 2026


Gravity from positivity: Single massive spin-3/2 particle makes gravity logically inevitable, study claims
Apr 2026, phys.org

A single massive spin-3/2 particle simply cannot exist in isolation within a consistent theory. Its scattering amplitudes grow too fast with energy, clashing with positivity inequalities. The theory breaks down barely above the particle's own mass. Therefore, supersymmetry is not a postulate: it is a logical necessity. Famous relations between the gravitino mass, the Planck mass, and the supersymmetry-breaking scale emerge here from the sole demand that probabilities be positive and effects propagate within the light cone.

Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, CEA, Institut de Physique Théorique, Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics Santa Barbara, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Brando Bellazzini et al, (Super) gravity from positivity, Journal of High Energy Physics (2026). DOI: 10.1007/jhep03(2026)028


New quantum theory of gravity brings long-sought 'theory of everything' a crucial step closer
May 2025, phys.org

(This short press article doesn't actually explain much, and they still need to prove it, so let's take it easy here.)

via Aalto University: Mikko Partanen et al, Gravity generated by four one-dimensional unitary gauge symmetries and the Standard Model, Reports on Progress in Physics (2025). DOI: 10.1088/1361-6633/adc82e

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Structural Decoherence and Assembloid Resistance


Things to consider as we dematerialize into our furniture - Buildings as living organisms and we will all be living in crystals in the future. Otherwise, how did it take us this long to figure out we could do this with 3D printing:

'Implosion carving' shrinks 3D photonic devices 2,000-fold for visible-light computing
May 2026, phys.org

They figured out how to create vacancies at any site across a material and then shrink it to about 1/2,000 of its original volume, making nanostructures with feature sizes with a resolution less than 100 nanometers; because that resolution is smaller than the wavelength of light, the devices can bend light in specific ways that allow them to perform optical computations.

via MIT: Quansan Yang et al, Isotropic shrinkage of patterned vacancies enables three-dimensional nanoprecise metastructures for visible light applications, Nature Photonics (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41566-026-01896-1

Image credit: Christopher Payne - New York's Forgotten Substations The Power Behind the Subway_6 - 2002 https://chrispaynephoto.com


Novel origami pattern turns flat sheets into load-bearing 3D technology
May 2026, phys.org

It's a "doubly curved lens box", also called a flat tendon-driven origami metamaterial with stiffness reprogrammability. ... Starting from a desired curved shape (such as a sphere, torus or vase-like surface), the researchers used differential geometry—mathematical theories for origami tiling and developable surfaces—followed by numerical optimization to compute the exact crease pattern needed so that, once folded and locked, the origami shell would match the target geometry. ... They next laser-cut and folded paperboard sheets into these patterns, assembled them into shells, and embedded thin cables ("tendons") through specific points. "By tightening or loosening the tendons, we measured how the stiffness changed and showed that the shells could go from saggy and flexible to rigid and resistant to twisting and bending."

via McGill University: Morad Mirzajanzadeh et al, Smooth doubly curved origami shells with reprogrammable rigidity, Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-69562-2


A low-tech solution to the 6G problem—metacrystal panels offer cheap way to guide wireless signals around corners
Jun 2026, phys.org

Higher-frequency channels of 6G communications are more easily blocked by walls, people and other obstacles. Metacrystals are passive, 3D-printed smart panels that can shape wireless signals without electronics, a power supply or active tuning.

Unlike many existing intelligent surfaces, which often perform only one task for one signal direction, the panels can handle several incoming waves at the same time, operate over different frequency bands simultaneously, work in reflection or transmission mode, and even fully absorb unwanted signals.

via Aalto University: Metacrystals: Inversely-designed 3D-printed intelligent panels for 6G communications, Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-73019-x


Rising heat and humidity challenge energy-efficient data center cooling worldwide
Jun 2026, phys.org

They assessed historical and projected temperatures and humidity levels around the world and compared them with the conditions required for "direct air free cooling," wherein naturally cold outside air is brought in to cool a building or equipment.

"We found that periods of time when temperature and humidity exceed recommended operating thresholds for direct air-free cooling are becoming more frequent and lasting longer in many regions"

One of their key findings is that the largest changes are not always seen in average conditions. In several regions, worst-day conditions are intensifying more rapidly than average conditions, indicating that environmental stress is becoming increasingly concentrated in rare but consequential events.

Funny way of describing the climate catastrophe: "Worst-day conditions are intensifying more rapidly than average conditions"

via University of Hawaii at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology: Christina Karamperidou et al, Limitations to air free cooling in data centers under rising heat and humidity, Scientific Reports (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-56926-3

Saturday, July 18, 2026

Duped - Truth Default Theory and the Social Science of Lying and Deception

Written by Timothy R. Levine on University of Alabama Press, 2020

Hardcore academic, but not the kind who makes words up to confuse you instead of just doing a better job of explaining things. He never believes his own results; instead he changes the variables and does another study. He's the opposite of the self-stimulating hermit who writes not to communicate to others but to hear himself talk. He's a real model of what a researcher should be. He's got healthy but persistent suspicion of everything, he's really intent on setting the record straight, on being absolutely certain before you say something, and he's not discrediting or disparaging anyone else in the process. And finally, in a way you never see in a science book like this, it does come with a climax at the end, and makes it feel like the whole thing was a story, constructed on purpose, with a beginning, middle, and end. You wish every researcher was like this. He even mentions how he gets upset that taxpayer funds go to wack theories. 

Also, the amount of time he spends and the effort in making it crystal clear who was the brains behind the "veracity effect" at the beginning of Chapter 12 is not only reaffirming to hear such respect but also another opportunity to see into the academic machine in ways that are often ignored. Sometimes I wonder if it's out of a kind of elitism where authors think "regular readers" wouldn't understand or don't care about these details. Not true, and I feel more respected as a reader. 

  • Most people are honest most of the time.
  • Most lies are told by a few prolific liars. 
  • (Taken from Turner) Honesty as complete disclosure may be inaccurate, and may be better described as fidelity to maintaining a relationship by selectively controlling information.
  • (Levine) Deception may not be a moral choice, but a practical one, and need not be conscious, but does serve a purpose. 
  • The younger you are, the more you lie. 
  • In deception studies, your chances of guessing correctly whether someone's lying is 54%.
  • Most people, when they do lie, are pretty good liars. 
  • People who appear confident, friendly, composed, and engaged tend to be believed.
  • Some people have honest demeanors and some don't, and that's it. 
  • Liars do the same "telltale" behaviors as non-liars, leading to much misclassification. 
  • Non-verbal cues for deception detection came from folk wisdom, but also the coincidence that many of the researchers came from non-verbal communication studies.
  • Most people think lack of eye contact is the #1 sign of deception, but also shifting posture, response latency, fast talking, speech errors, more pauses and hesitation, less plausible content, contradict themselves, less conversationally involved, uncertainty in voice, less friendly and cooperative, and more nervous.
  • High pitch and pupil dilation correlate, but it's small. 
  • Theories that don't work: Ekman's leakage theory that we unconsciously "leak" the truth via gestures etc. while lying , but only for emotionally potent, high stakes lies. He sums up all the other theories of deception in a meta-theory called Cue Theory: deception is a psychological state that manifests behavioral cues which can be detected. He also references a man named Kraut 1980s who says all deception theory is biased on the assumption that observable behavior represents internal states.  
  • He has concerns about deception research in the legal and criminal psychology areas - they seem cliquish and provincial; they co-author and review one another's work. 

  • "Deception becomes probable when the truth makes honest communication difficult or inefficient."
  • "Deception - or more precisely, the possession of problematic information ..."
  • Deception becomes probable when people judge truthful information as so problematic it can't be disclosed (McCornack).
  • Deception is purposive, i.e., people lie for a reason: "The basic functions of communication include being informative and sharing information and influencing the affect, cognition and behaviors of others; entertainment; and building, maintaining or ending social, personal, and professional relationships." p154

Deception Motives:
  • Personal Transgression - cover up a misdeed
  • Economic Advantage - money as always
  • Personal Advantage - promotion at work, avoid a disliked task
  • Social or Politeness - saying a stupid gift is really nice
  • Altruism - to protect another; father lying to daughter about being sick
  • Self-Impression Management - status? (cant this be #3?)
  • Malicious - cause harm to others
  • Humor - like a prank
  • Pathological - delusional, disregard for consequences
  • Avoidance - sorry can't make it tonight, my fish tank just exploded

Variable Affecting Truth Bias:
  • Experimentally primed suspicion - when you are told to be suspicious
  • Closeness of relationship - closer you are, the more you're biased to believing them
  • Face-to-face interaction 
  • Mere questioning aka The Probing Effect - watching a person be questioned, no matter how they answer, makes them look more honest to you (now that's an interesting one)
  • Sender demeanor believability - this is the strongest variable

Truth Default Deactivation Triggers:
  • Projected motive for deception - you think they have a reason to lie
  • Dishonest demeanor - they "look like" they're lying
  • Incoherent message content - doesn't make sense
  • Lack of correspondence between content and reality - also doesn't make sense
  • Warning from a third party

On Scientific Revolutions and Paradigm Shifting:

This only applies to deception research, but it's the common phenomenon you see all the time preceding a drastic shift in thinking within a field of study. For decades, you had a 56% chance of detecting deception, based on the deception research. But those experiments were just not generalizable, or in other words, they were too "artificial" to be compared to real life. It's an example of how easily we are hypnotized by our own time. 

The Behavior Quotient aka The Demeanor Index:

Alas, this is the reason I bought the book; people appear so apt to believe me when I talk, and I find that so weird because I would be super-suspicious of myself if I heard myself talking, and I wonder what it is that makes people like this. He says this list is worth "vastly more than what you paid for this book." It started because in one of his experiments there were a few "senders" who everyone got wrong, and a few who everyone got right, so they looked at those people, and this is what they found:

Sincere (Honest) Demeanor Cues:
  • Confidence and composure
  • Pleasant and friendly interaction style
  • Engaged and involved interaction style
  • Gives plausible explanations

Insincere (Dishonest) Demeanor Cues:
  • Avoids eye contact
  • Appears hesitant and slow in providing answers
  • Vocal uncertainty (in tone of voice)
  • Excessive fidgeting 
  • Appears tense, nervous, anxious
  • Portrays an inconsistent demeanor over course of interaction
  • Verbal uncertainty (bad vocabulary?)
  • I call all these things basic public speaking skills?

Finally, and providing climax in a science book, something which never happens, or which isn't necessarily supposed to happen, they reveal that in fact it's possible to break the 56% accuracy ceiling. Expertise is possible but it's context-dependent and involves knowing how to prompt diagnostically useful information rather than passive observation of behavioral cues. The experts scored 100%, not 56%.

Note that up until now, deception researchers used scripted questions, which undercuts the experts' expertise; the whole point of them being experts is them knowing which questions to ask. 

How did they do it? Start conversationally, get to know the person. Then, ask critical information about th eissue, like facts that can be corroborated. Then ask about their integrity and views on cheating (the experiment was a simulated cheating scenario). Then they circle back and ask the same questions again ina  different way, but remembering the first answers. They also tried to convince them to confess, stressing the importance of honesty. 

Five Keys to Improving Lie Detection:
  • Correspondence of communication in evidence - what you said vs known facts
  • Content in context - situational familiarity, knowing whether this is a joke or has double meaning
  • Assessment of deception motives
  • Diagnostic questioning
  • Persuading honesty


Friday, July 17, 2026

Determined - A Science of Life Without Free Will


Written by Robert Sapolsky 2023

I've read too much of his work by now, not to mention sitting through all 72 hours of his Human Behavior 101 course at Stanford. So much so that I'm not the audience for this book because I already 1. Believe him, and 2. I know why I believe it. That being said, there are entire chapters in here about physics and randomness, and I am not a happy camper when I see a scientist of one discipline write about a different discipline. It's one thing if it comes up in conversation, but to use your platform, which you've earned by being an expert in your field, to talk about stuff beyond that field, not cool. I call it the Neil DeGrasse Tyson effect, because during the pandemic, when he was really at the peak of his public persona, he talked a lot about biology and epidemiology and even air quality on the platforms he had access to (television shows, podcasts, etc.) because of his recognition as a **physicist**. And an astrophysicist at that, which is about as far as physics gets from things biological. That pissed me off. Personally, because I was an industrial hygienist at the time, and if there's one thing that's "in the lane" of the IH, it's infectious aerosols and indoor air quality. But I was moreso pissed because it's deception, or at least an exploitation. I know it's tempting, when you're smart, and trusted as an authority, to answer basically any question that comes your way; you might even feel obligated. But it's not professional. And I get that Sapolsky needed a chapter on randomness to talk about free will, but I didn't buy this book to hear him talk about physics. For that I buy a book by a renowned physicist (just not Leonard Mlodinow, because his 2008 book The Drunkard's Walk sucked and was a total disappointment). The whole thing has an air of ... mental incest? Self-stimulation I guess is what you might call it if your were trying to be professional; there's a couple other phrases that come to mind, but they sound a bit adolescent so I'll avoid it. 

Image credit: Sapolsky in the Field circa 1990

Next, I swear he's got as much text in the footnotes as he does in the book proper. That's annoying, and makes it look like you didn't put enough thought into the book. Also makes me wonder how his editor and publisher let him get away with it.

Alas. All that being said, the way he introduces the book and his ideas is so good and so effortless, so amicable. This is a guy who knows how not to pick fights - he spent much of his life hanging out with baboons (and never once got eaten to death!).
  • Right off the bat, he says explicitly he's not trying to pick fights, and not arguing on a personal level with anyone. A good way for any writer to start their book of arguments. 
  • And the very next section is titled "Whom I Will Be Disagreeing With". The way he pre-emptively addresses his critics is so instructive, and likely the result of having written several books already, and experiencing the resulting maelstrom of highly informed, sometimes highly combative opinions. 

  • "While we are free to do as we intend, we are not free to intend what we intend." p19
  • Alien hand syndrome, and anarchic hand syndrome (Dr Strangelove and the unwanted Nazi salute)
  • "Chronotheology" is what critics called Libet's experiments that seem to show that some part of your brain makes decisions before you're even aware of it. 
  • "Turtleism" is "turtles all the way down" (and is strongly correlated with the "Always Has Been" astronaut shooting the other astronaut meme).
  • I find these too hard to believe, but I will write them down: Lying by voicemail increased request for mouthwash, and lying by email for hand sanitizer. See The MacBeth Effect: C Zhang and K Lijenquist 2006; SW Lee and N Schwarz 2010; E Kalanthroff, C Aslan and R Dar 2017; Schnall, Benton, Harvey 2008; Kaspar, Krapp, Konig 2015
  • After pointing out the human frontal cortex takes 12 more years after the rest of the primates to develop, "the genetic program of the human brain evolved to free the frontal cortex from genes as much as possible" (what I'd rather call cultural evolution and the arena of artificial selection)
  • Rainforest vs Desert dwellers and why "55% of humans proclaim religions invented by Middle Eastern monotheistic shepherds". (Rainforest dwellers tend to have polytheistic religions.)
  • The Hungry Judge (not easy to get to the bottom of this because for example the wikipedia page as of 2025 said it was disproven, but when you consider just the biases and motives of potential actors, you might want to err on the side of it being true?) This is in a footnote, not the text proper - "The finding was challenged by some critics who suggested that it was a statistical artifact of the way parole hearings were carried out; the authors reanalyzed their data to control for these possibilities, convincingly showing that the effect was still there. An additional study showed the identical pattern: subjects read job applicant profiles from out-group minority members; the longer it had been since a meal, the less time was spent on each application." p107
  • On the "Initial Conditions" of the Butterfly Effect (inside joke) - he says that when Lorenz came up with his strange attractor theory, he tried to summarize it with a metaphor about seagulls, but a friend suggested something more picturesque, and by 1972 we have the title of the talk ... p133 ("What Could Be Worse Than the Butterfly Effect?" R Bishop in Canadian Journal of Philosophy 2008)
  • *** Some things were free will and now they're not, because we learned more. "In this view, "free will" is what we call the biology that we don't understand on a predictive level yet, and when we do understand it, it stops being free will." p150
  • When lethal injection machines were invented, some states stipulated that there'd be two separate delivery routes, each with a syringe full of poison, two people would press each of two buttons, and a randomizer in the machine would infuse the poison from one syringe into the person and dump the contents of the other into a bucket. ... defusing the sense of responsibility. p152
  • [This is where I stop reading entire chapters about physics by neurologists.]
  • "On the Reception and Detection of Pseudo-Scientific Bullshit" by Gordon Pennycock and wisdomofchopra.com
  • ***Dan Dennett's Nefarious Neurosurgeon - a surgeon does a procedure on a patient and then lies and says she implanted a chip in their brain that robs them of their free will, and that she now controls them. Unburdened by responsibility for their actions, they become criminal. And that, Dennet says, is how neuroscientists rob people of their free will. p390
  • ***In general, it's hard to convince people there's no free will, and hence nobody's actions are their fault, because then also their accomplishments aren't their's either, and they get no credit. Nobody's going for that. Saul Smilansky's Philosophical Illusionism comes to this conclusion. 

  • To live through "free will colored glasses"
  • In the epilogue he refutes meritocracy arguments - The issue isn't that so-called meritocracies reward un-qualified people, it's how qualified people come to be that way. The opportunities, not the standards, are unequal. p407