Showing posts with label marketing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label marketing. Show all posts

Friday, August 9, 2024

I'll Harvest You and You'll Like It


Let's start with an opinion piece from the MIT Tech Review, just to get ourselves acquainted with the word "User" and the world we now live in:

It’s time to retire the term “user” - The proliferation of AI means we need a new word
April 19 2024, Taylor Majewski for MIT Tech Review

A user is also, of course, someone who struggles with addiction. To be an addict is - at least partl - to live in a state of powerlessness. Today, power users - title originally bestowed upon people who had mastered skills like keyboard shortcuts and web design - aren’t measured by their technical prowess. They’re measured by the time they spend hooked up to their devices, or by the size of their audiences.  

As early as 2008, Norman [Don Norman, user experience legend] alighted on this shortcoming and began advocating for replacing “user” with “person” or “human” when designing for people. (The subsequent years have seen an explosion of bots, which has made the issue that much more complicated.) “Psychologists depersonalize the people they study by calling them ‘subjects.’ We depersonalize the people we study by calling them ‘users.’ Both terms are derogatory,” he wrote then. “If we are designing for people, why not call them that?”

What were once called AI bots have been assigned lofty titles like “copilot” and “assistant” and “collaborator” to convey a sense of partnership instead of a sense of automation. Large language models have been quick to ditch words like “bot” altogether.



And now let's go back to December 2023, to remember that kids have to be called users, because if we called them people, we might have to admit that they're not full-fledged, legitimate, 18-year-old, registered-to-vote, licensed-to-drive, eligible-for-military-service people perfectly capable of making decisions on procreation etc. Kids are the best users - they have no lawyers, and they have no prefrontal cortex, and that's what we like: 

Social media platforms generate billions in annual ad revenue from US youth
Dec 2023, phys.org

Social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), and YouTube collectively derived nearly $11 billion in advertising revenue from U.S.-based users younger than 18 in 2022.

(But how much would it cost to get them to stop committing suicide? I wonder.)

via Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health: Social media platforms generate billions of dollars in revenue from U.S. youth: Findings from a simulated revenue model, PLOS ONE (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295337


Here we are reminded that it's not just helpless, innocent children being harvested for their parents' bank accounts, but their parents too. And it's not even about taking your money anymore, but something else:

Roku patent invents a way to show ads over anything you plug into your TV
Apr 2024, Ars Technica

Thursday, January 4, 2024

The Free Market vs the Fair Market


Discrepancies at the dispensaries: Study finds THC potency much lower than labeled
Apr 2023, phys.org

Never again 

There's a theme here that you can't trust the commercial sector it's basically the exact opposite of science and the pursuit of knowledge.

Also can we give these guys an award for the best title: Uncomfortably High

Using High-Performance Liquid Chromatography, Mile High Lab techs tested 23 samples (1–2 grams per sample) representing 12 strains purchased from 10 Colorado dispensaries. Strains were chosen to represent a diversity of reported THC % by dry weight from 12.8% to 33.0%.

It was unclear to researchers if the single values printed on packaging were an average of multiple tests or the result of a single test.

The average observed THC potency was 23.1% lower than the lowest label reported values and 35.6% lower than the highest label reported values. Overall, ~70% of the samples were more than 15% lower than the THC potency numbers reported on the label, with three samples having only half of the reported maximum THC potency. 13 of 23 tested samples had observed values that were more than 30% lower than the lowest reported value.

As the legal cannabis market continues to grow, it is essential that the industry moves toward selling products with more accurate labeling or risk losing trust in the industry as a whole.

via University of Northern Colorado and Mile High Labs in Colorado: Anna L. Schwabe et al, Uncomfortably high: Testing reveals inflated THC potency on retail Cannabis labels, PLOS ONE (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282396



Testing of smartphone apps that identify plants shows most are not very good
Apr 2023, phys.org

Most smartphone apps that identify plants are inaccurate. All of the apps are based on deep-learning technology and have been trained using images posted on the internet.

This, they further note, leads to errors because so many images of plants on the internet are mislabeled. (emphasized for those AI fans out there who forget that humans are and will always be the weakest link; and we are the ones who label.)

  • large differences in accuracy between the apps and variation across species
  • most of the apps did better when asked to identify plants by their flowers than by their leaves
  • none had an accuracy above 90%
  • some scored as low as 4% on some tasks
  • none of the apps are good enough to use as a field guide for people foraging for food in the wild
  • nor are they good enough for use by environmentalists or farmers to determine which plants to protect and which to eradicate
  • they can be used by hobbyists hoping to learn more about their local environment

via University of Galway's School of Natural Science and University of Leeds' School of Geography: Neil Campbell et al, A repeatable scoring system for assessing Smartphone applications ability to identify herbaceous plants, PLOS ONE (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283386


The Laws of Metaphysics Strikes Again:
Accountants' tricks can help identify cheating scientists, says new study
Apr 2023, phys.org

You cannot escape Benford's Law, or any of the Laws Metaphysical (not until you get yourself a quantum random number generator to clean up your fake data).

The trick behind these tools is that it is actually harder than you might imagine to fabricate essentially random numbers, like the last digit in everyone's bank balances. Financial auditors have known this for a long time and have a variety of tools for looking at lists of numbers and highlighting ones that seem odd (and thus requiring investigation for fraud).

via University of St Andrews: Gregory M. Eckhartt et al, Investigating and preventing scientific misconduct using Benford's Law, Research Integrity and Peer Review (2023). DOI: 10.1186/s41073-022-00126-w

Post Script: 
Retractions of scientific papers neared 5,000 globally in 2022 according to Retraction Watch, amounting to almost 0.1% of published articles:
Retraction Watch - Tracking retractions as a window into the scientific process

Post Post Script:
Part of the problem, he says, stems from publication bias: "There are virtually no incentives for publishing papers that provide confirmation or refutation of previous studies." This emphasis placed on exciting results, which ultimately affects the success of scientists' careers, may be a key factor to consider in future reforms.

Read more at Megadata vs Magadata

Read this like it's the Onion:
Fox News settles Dominion defamation case for $787.5m - In a statement, Fox said Tuesday's settlement in one of the most anticipated defamation trials in recent US history reflected its "commitment to the highest journalistic standards".
Apr 2023, BBC News

Image credit: AI Art - Ghost Scream - 2022

Fewer than half of new drugs add substantial therapeutic value over existing treatments
Jul 2023, phys.org

They used publicly available data to identify 124 first and 335 supplemental indications approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and 88 first and 215 supplemental indications approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) between January 2011 and December 2020.

Among FDA-approved indications with available ratings, 41% (44 of 107) had high therapeutic value ratings for first, compared with 34% (61 of 179) for supplemental indications. In Europe, 47% (41 of 87) of first and 36% (67 of 184) of supplemental indications had high therapeutic value ratings.

Among FDA approvals, when the sample was restricted to the first three approved indications, second indication approvals were 36% less likely to have a high value rating and third indication approvals were 45% less likely when compared to the first indication approval. Similar findings were observed for Europe.

via Institute of Law, University of Zurich, Harvard Medical School, Yale School of Medicine, Yale School of Public Health: Therapeutic value of first versus supplemental indications of drugs in US and Europe (2011-20): retrospective cohort study, The BMJ (2023). DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2022-074166


Researchers find 89% of sports supplement labels false, ingredients fraudulent and some laced with illegal drugs
Jul 2023, phys.org

  • Sports supplements, not just any supplements
  • Supplement manufacturing (all of it) is not monitored.
  • US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) lists them as a food subcategory, but synthetic drugs being slipped into supplements are not food or botanical ingredients—they are unapproved pharmaceutical drugs (words from the article not mine).
  • The U.S. Department of Justice has previously charged individuals with conspiracy to defraud consumers and the FDA by selling products labeled as dietary supplements that contained unapproved drugs.
  • Finding unlabeled and unapproved drugs in supplements is equivalent to experimenting on humans without their knowledge. Most concerning is the product found to contain four different drug compounds. While none of these drugs are well tested on humans, a cocktail of multiple combined banned substances has never been tested in any scenario.
They analyzed the ingredients in a selection of sports supplements purchased online with liquid chromatography–quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry:
  • 89% inaccurately labeled
  • 12% included unlabeled banned drug substances
  • 57 products contained one of five popular supplements, R vomitoria (n=13), methylliberine (n=21), turkesterone (n=8), halostachine (n=7) and octopamine (n=8).
Vomitoria though?
  • 23 products (40%) did not contain a detectable amount of the labeled ingredient
  • Of the 34 products that contained detectable amounts of the listed ingredient, the actual quantity ranged from 0.02% to 334% of the labeled quantity (***so even when you do list it, it's so far off that it doesn't matter***)
  • 6 products (11%) contained an ingredient quantity within 10% of the label
  • 7 products (12%) were found to contain at least one FDA-prohibited ingredient
  • 5 different FDA-prohibited compounds were found, including four synthetic simulants, 1,4-dimethylamylamine (DMAA), deterenol, octodrine (DMHA), oxilofrine and omberacetam
  • 6 products contained one of these prohibited ingredients, and one contained a combination of four prohibited ingredients: 1,4 Dimethylhexylamine, or 1,4-DMAA, analog of 1,3-DMAA, Deterenol (Betaphrine), Octodrine, Oxilofrine, Omberacetam (seem like mostly stimulants, hypertension, not approved for use in humans)

via Cambridge Health Alliance, Massachusetts; Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts; University of Mississippi; and NSF International, Michigan: Pieter A. Cohen et al, Presence and Quantity of Botanical Ingredients With Purported Performance-Enhancing Properties in Sports Supplements, JAMA Network Open (2023). DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.23879


Study shows how the meat and dairy sector resists competition from alternative animal products
Aug 2023, phys.org

Researchers compared government spending of major agricultural policies and lobbying trends from 2014 to 2020 that supported either the animal food product system or alternative technologies, and compared government spending on both systems. 

In the U.S., about 800 times more public funding and 190 times more lobbying money goes to animal-source food products than alternatives. In the EU, about 1,200 times more public funding and three times more lobbying money goes to animal-source food products. In both regions, nearly all plant-based meat patents were published by a small number of private companies or individuals, with just one U.S. company, Impossible Foods, owning half of the patents.

But the fake take:

Similarly, a proposed amendment to the U.S. Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act would prohibit the sale of alternative meats unless the product label included the word "imitation" and other clarifying statements indicating the non-animal origin.

via Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability: Simona Vallone, Public policies and vested interests preserve the animal farming status quo at the expense of animal product analogs, One Earth (2023). DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.07.013

Thursday, September 29, 2022

User Interface Takes the Back Seat


This is a picture of a Norman Door, which means a door that was designed without a user in mind. It comes from the world of industrial design or user design, but slips into semiotics quite easily.

Funny, you might think, that a thing would be designed without a user in mind, since all things are designed for the purpose of being used (talking industrial design here, but this extends to all user interface designs, like websites, or even the control panel of an Apache helicopter).

But there are tons of things we interact with today that were absolutely not designed with us in mind. In fact, you might even say they weren't designed at all, unless you like to give agency to a conglomeration of dozens of interests, angles and entities crossing out each other's ideas until settling on the least messed up version of a thing that still checks all the boxes of all the people...except for the one box that says "good user interface design".

I remember hearing from an old family friend who worked at one of the Bell Labs in the 1980's about how they had people come to teach them about user interface, although he didn't call it that. He recalls learning for the first time why telephones were shaped the way they were, or even that they were shaped that way on purpose at all.

That was the era when we had cognitive psychologist George Miller pushing the 3-4 chunking as the best way to write phone numbers, because we remember things best in groups of 3-4, and why phone numbers on billboards in England look like a mess to the American brain.

Today, we could care less about the user. The user is a consumer; we don't use things, we only purchase them. What we do after they've been purchased, well, the manufacturer-designer could care less about that part. The way a product's user interface is designed is less about easing the user's experience than it is about manipulating the consumer's behavior via shiny surfaces and new colors. (Or via the intentionally unintelligible math that's posted on the post-pandemic phenomenon of Mega-sized toilet paper, which has completely supplanted standard-sized toilet paper, yet not only has less sheets for more money but is bigger than both the average hand and the average toilet paper roll holder.) 

Scott Comfort Plus Mega Toilet Paper - Notice the intentionally unintelligible math used to stimulate the risk-reward part of your brain, with the adverse effect that you get excited enough by the idea that you're about to win, that you shut off the actual math part of your brain. For example, how are you measuring the "rolls" here -- by weight, by sheet, or by square footage? Because something makes me suspicious that the textured paper makes them look bigger than they are. And is there a national standard for the metrics of a "standard" roll of toilet paper? Because what if they just change the standard size, and compare the new mega rolls to a new standard size they just made up, comparing apples to oranges. The math is unintelligible, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, since apparently we just want to play games with our brain while we shop, just ask JCPenny.


Definition of a Norman Door (why doesn't this have it's own Wikipedia page?)
A door that requires a sign to tell you what to do. 

Definition with bigger words:
A door with design elements that give you the wrong usability signals to the point that special signage is needed to clarify how they work.

Pictures of Norman Doors

The inspiration for the Norman Door -- Don Norman

Don Norman's book on design -- The Design of Everyday Things (1988)

Image credit: Open systems streamline helicopter avionics upgrades, Military Embedded Systems, Apr 2022.

Sometimes we get good news on the user interface front, or at least some good scientific inquiry. Good news would be hearing about car designers actually integrating these findings into their work.  For as long as we have hands and fingers, we will need buttons and knobs. 

Physical buttons outperform touchscreens in new cars, test finds
Aug 17 2022, Swedish car magazine Vi Bilägare, via Ars Technica

Designers want a ”clean” interior with minimal switchgear, and the financial department wants to lower the cost. 

Vi Bilägare gathered eleven modern cars from different manufacturers at an airfield och measured the time needed for a driver to perform different simple tasks, such as changing the radio station or adjusting the climate control. At the same time, the car was driven at 110 km/h (68 mph). We also invited an ”old-school” car without a touchscreen, a 17-year-old Volvo V70, for comparison. [And which destroyed the competition.]

One important aspect of this test is that the drivers had time to get to know the cars and their infotainment systems before the test started.

Results:
  • The driver in the worst-performing car needs four times longer to perform simple tasks than in the best-performing car.
  • The easiest car to understand and operate, by a large margin, is the 2005 Volvo V70. The four tasks is handled within ten seconds flat, during which the car is driven 306 meters at 110 km/h.
  • At the other end of the scale, Chinese electric car MG Marvel R performs far worse. The driver needs 44.6 seconds before all the tasks are completed, during which the car has travelled 1,372 meters – more than four times the distance compared to the old Volvo.
  • BMW iX and Seat Leon perform better, but both are still too complicated. The driver needs almost a kilometer to perform the tasks. Lots can happen in traffic during that time.

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Subprime Attention Crisis


This author gave a talk at HOPE in 2010ish about Twitterbots, long before they were a thing. In fact, he kind of made them a thing. Anyway, now he's talking about how online advertising doesn't really work, and that it's going to become too hard to ignore, and the industry will collapse, and it will take the entire internet with it. I hope he's wrong, but he makes quite the compelling argument.

Subprime Attention Crisis:Advertising and the Time Bomb at the Heart of the Internet
Tim Hwang, 2020

"Programmatic Advertising" is an important term in this book, and refers to the automation of buying and selling of ads, at mind-blinding speed and without any human intervention or oversight at all.

Distinction between direct response advertising (see it, buy it) vs brand advertising ("shaping the public's associations with a brand and differentiating it from its competitors) (p80)

Mesothelioma - one of the most expensive keywords to advertise against (p83, ft21)
-Jim Leichenko, "The Most Expensive Keywords on Google - Anniversay Edition," Kantar Media, Sep 4 2018

Data arbitrage - marketing agencies sign deals for discounted prices for ad inventory for publishers, then resell the inventory at a higher price to their clients (pocketing the difference) (p105)

Surveillance Capitalism - Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. Public Affairs. 2019

Ad damage (harm) - relies on invasion of privacy, incentivizes manipulating user behavior and seizing user attention in ways that may be harmful to mental health and physical development (Zuboff), and incentivizes media supporting information of echo chambers (Eli Parsier, The Filter Bubble, 2012)

(Also re harms of advertising) - The broad range of expression that the internet might otherwise enable has been limited to ways of connecting that are consistent with the financial needs of advertising. Advertising is complicit in restricting the grammar of social interaction online. (p117)

In envisioning a platform totally anonymous, he says it might "degrade into a ---digital wall of bathroom graffiti--- in a few hours. (p118) [I find an uncanny resemblance between this and the Wall of Public Shame and Social Miscourse that Facebook has morphed into.]

Post Script - About the Image:
I tried to search images for "shopping addiction" but it's weird because they're all smiling. You can't get a picture of someone holding a shopping bag with a scowl on their face, it just doesn't work. Even the articles about how to recognize if you have a compulsive shopping disorder show pictures of people smiling. I'll admit, it's hard to communicate visually, something about the two things together that doesn't work visually. Gambling addiction, on the other hand, is all dejected people with their head in their hands. So I decided to go for "Black Friday", because that's what it looks like when your culture -- not any one individual but the entire culture -- has a shopping addiction. 

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Profit Over Privacy


I'm reading this book along with a series of others about advertising, privacy, etc. The Naked Consumer (1992) takes us up to the pre-internet era, and Sub Prime Attention Crisis (2021) shows us the implications of propping up the infrastructure of the internet with advertising, specifically targeted instead of contextual advertising. 

Profit Over Privacy: How Surveillance Advertising Conquered the Internet
Matthew Crain, University of Minnesota Press, 2021

"Commercial monitoring" is the palatable name for surveillance advertising.

He calls Russia's 2016 interference an "ad system" (p3) -United States of America v. Internet Research Agency, LLC., No 18 U.S.C. SS2, 371, 1349, 1028A (n.d.)

Facebook is an ad platform - "data-driven influence peddling is their bread and butter" (p4)

The 2013 Facebook Like Study: Michael Kosinski, David Stillwell, and Thore Graepel, "Private Traits and Attributes Are Predictable From Digital Records of Human Behavior," PNAS 110, no. 15 (2013): 5802-5

Cory Doctorow's microtargeting: "How To Destroy Surveillance Capitalism," OneZero, Aug 26 2020.

Funny how the author is talking about lack of public access to high quality information, caused by digital ad ecosystems, yet low-credibility info is the fuel of digital advertising via engagement algorithms more likely to spread and instigate further engagement if they're extreme and novel, i.e., low-credibility.

The privacy market (which is now a free market with no rules) (p21)

"The fiction that advertising supports or makes possible the news, entertainment, or educational content has been a public relations mainstay of the commercial mass media" -Dallas Smythe, 1981: Dependency Road: Communications, Capitalism, Consciousness and Canada

Far from creating objective representations of the world as it is, consumer surveillance reproduces and often reinforces existing structural inequalities (p105)
-Noble, Algorithms of Oppression
-Jathan Sadowski, To Smart: How Digital Capitalism is Extracting Data, Controlling Our Lives, and Taking Over the World. 2020

The strategic communications campaign to pacify the public on privacy issues (p132)
-Inger Stole, Advertising on Tril: Consumer Activism and Corporate Public Relations in the 1930's. 2005 
-Molly Niesen, "The Little Old Lady Has teeth: The US Federal Trade Commission and the Advertising Industry, 1970-1973," Advertising and Society Review 12, no. 4 (2012)

Daniel Pope: The Making of Modern Advertising

The divergence between Google and Doubleclick (before 2007)
  • Google: Rather than collecting consumer info to target ads, they relied on users' search keywords to display "contextual advertising", and this was very successful
  • Doubleclick: Consumer data was the keystone for closing the loop between ads and sales
-Ken Auletta, Googled: The End of the World as We Know It, 2010

The central business proposition of social networks stemmed from their arguably superior capacities to collect and operationalize personal information, not from any significantly technical innovations in advertising practice (p140) [And so Facebook ultimately forced Google to abandon the context-approach completely ... Surveillance was too big of a business.]

Accounting for the shift: Google's first privacy policy, created in 1999, sparsely explained that the company did not collect data on any individuals. Twenty years and thirty versions later, it now takes four thousand words to outline the company's extensive data collection practices across its array of websites, applications and partners. (p142) -Warzejl and Ngu in New York Times, 2019

On Opt-In: "Offering advertising on an opt-in basis goes against the economic model of the internet" [because you made it that way through decades of policy manipulation] (p143)
-Google spokesperson, in JR Raphel, "Google's Behavioral Ad targeting: How to Regain Control", PC World, 2009

Back to Politics: The history of surveillance advertising is not a story of disruption but rather one of continuity. (p145)

Further Reading:
-Matt Honan, "Google's Broken Promise: The End of 'Don't Be Evil'", Gizmodo 2012
-Tim Libert, "Exposing the Invisible Web: An Analysis of Third-Party HTTP Requests on 1 Million Websites," Int. Jour. Comm. 2015
-Julia Angwin, :The Web's New Godl Mine: Your Secrets", WSJ 2010
-FTC, "Cross Device Tracking: An FTC Staff Report", 2017
-Jennifer Valentino-DeVries et al., "Your Apps Know Where You Were Last Night, and They're Not Keeping It Secret", NYT 2018
-"Stat Oil", The Economist 2013
-John Cheney-Lippold, We Are Data: Algorithms and the Making of Oour Digital Selves, NYU Press 2017
-Gabriel Weinberg, "What If We Al Just Sold Non-Creepy Advertising?" NYT 2019

Monday, May 23, 2022

The Naked Consumer


AKA Big Datty Goes Shopping

This book was written in 1992, and exemplifies the reason why I like to read old books from a kind of anthropological or at least historical perspective. He says things that sound like they could have been written yesterday, and it shows you how much of what we call "new" or even "unprecedented" are actually just an extension of things that have always existed.

And a big part of me thinks that constantly re-naming and re-examining things is what holds us back from making more progress. We act like our problems just appeared yesterday, when in fact they've been around forever, and the things getting in the way of solving them --corrupt governance, greedy businesses, etc.-- are kept invisible to oversight and insulated from public outrage just as they always were. And we're kept chasing our own tails, making up new names for things and separating each other into different groups so that we can discuss and blame and even legislate our way into a conflated oblivion, without making much of a dent in the main source of the problem. I don't know, personal carbon footprint calculators comes to mind, for example. Pay no attention to the 500 pound elephant behind the curtain. 

Magazines, many of them but not all of them, are not real.

That is, they aren't what you think they are. You think they're a bunch of pictures and stories, gathered around some loosely related subjects for your infotainment pleasure. This author shows us that they are not that. Instead, a magazine is a ploy to get your name and address. That's it. The purpose is to create a list of all the people who have an interest in "x", and then to sell that list to people who want to sell people "x". That's it.

American Baby was a magazine in the 90's. I've never heard of it. But it was about babies, and aimed at new mothers. Articles about breastfeeding and thumbsucking and extra belly fat probably (because making a woman feel bad about her image is a sure way to get her to buy your shit). But the magazine wasn't made for its readers. It was made for the advertisers who buy the list of readers. And that's because new mothers are the number one most heavily targeted demographics on earth. And that's because young mothers are scared out of their minds, and will do anything you tell them to, especially if you scare them enough. 

You might be thinking GMOs or vaccines. And you'd be right, because a good network analysis done recently showed how alternative medicine and new mothers were the nexus of a global conspiracy network, linking other disparate groups and topics, and allowing for the spread of antivax disinformation to infect our population faster than a real virus ever could. 

That's the intro to the book -- the author pretends he's got a pregnant wife, submits a subscription to American Baby, and watches what happens next. His fictitious wife, and her miracle baby who doesn't exist, are from that day on bombarded with advertising that has been engineered to exploit your endocrine system at every stage of your baby's development, all the way into their own adulthood. The consumer surveillance system has been around forever, and still follows the same rules, and still uses the same arguments on our legislators, judges, academics and entrepreneurs. 

In spite of common sense, learning your history might be more impactful than threatening to boycott your favorite social media platform using said social media platform. 


The Naked Consumer: How Our Lives Become Public Commodities
Erik Larson, Henry Holt Publishers, 1992

He talks about noticing that his mail has intelligence, and later calls it "smart mail". He's referring to how the advertisers know he has a baby, and he does refer to this as the "consumer intelligence system" elsewhere in the book. I'm just saying, he was saying "smart"-things in 1992. 

Quoting a marketing executive, "Through psychographics, we become the friend who knows them as well as, perhaps better than, they know themselves" (p13). Sound familiar?

The 4 Laws of Data Dynamics
  1. The law of data coalescence - Data must seek and merge with complementary data.
  2. Data always will be used for purposes other than originally intended. 
  3. Data collected about individuals will be used to cause harm to one or more n=members of the group who provided the information or about whom it was collected, be it minor (short-term aggravation of a "junk" call during dinner) or major (the sorrow of getting a free sample of formula just after your miscarriage).
  4. Confidential information is confidential only until someone decides it's not. (p14)

Interesting take on Planned Obsolescence: Talking about a shift in marketing in the 1920's - "to more effectively woo consumers, manufacturers shifted their emphasis from function to style. Suddenly, consumers could buy Turkish towels in colors other than white; even toilets came in alluring new shades. Automakers began painting car different colors; in 1927 General Motors began making annual changes in body styles a practice that came to be known as "planned obsolescence." The stated mission of GM's research division was "the organized creation of dissatisfaction." (p20)

The radio is not a public place - you couldn't blatantly advertise on the radio in the 1920's because it was broadcast into people's homes, the "family circle" (p21)

The Census Bureau, cluster analysis, REZIDES (National Zip Code Encyclopedia (household income, education, home value, and occupation), PRIZMs (Potential Rating Index for Zip Markets); (circa p50)

The National Credit Hunters roster: 1.6 million people who applied for credit cards but were turned down, "these credit-hungry men and women are available for rental" ...you could get 400,000 names every two weeks for $70 per thousand... (p66)

Gay people are a very heavily-marketed group, because they are so easy to identify, i.e., via same-sex address matching, which doesn't work as well for females (~p68)

Jews - there is a database that scores your name's Jewishness, and why? Because "They're well-to-do and highly assimilated. They have a lot of disposable cash in the sense that their income is higher than the norm. There is a social tradition in Judaism toward charity. They tend to read more than the general public. There's only one group that has succeeded more than the Jews in terms of their economic and social assimilation into American society, and that's the Japanese." - Avram Lyon AB Data Ltd. Vice President (p69) 

[^Why are gay people not called Gays, yet Jewish people are called Jews?]

Copyright traps on lists! - To insure that list renters use names only as often as agreed (because they make money off use of the list, so you can't turn around and sell it to someone else), list managers routinely seed them with false names -- the names, for example, of pets and people long dead whose addresses, however, are actually addresses of living employees of the list managers. If these employees receive more than one letter addressed to a particular defunct consumer, they sound the alarm. (p70)

Also note they copyright their lists, despite the fact that "we consumers never gave them direct permission to use our names in the first place." (p70)

There's lists of people who are non-responders, so they can be eliminated from other lists; there's lists of recent mortgage holders who are likely to go bankrupt in the next 12 months, so they can be contacted again in 12 months... (p76)

"Synchographics" - (not synchro-) are timed milestones like puberty or pregnancy or homeownership (p81)

"There is no more elaborate consumer intelligence system than that set up to capture the gravid [pregnancy] status of women." (p82)

The Direct Mail List Rates and Data directory describes thousands of lists, their owners and managers, and the price they charge. Find this at your local library. (p83)

Toledo, Ohio water commissioner in 1952 realizes a sudden citywide pressure drop during the I Love Lucy commercial break. (p106)

Langbourne Rust - he's a spy basically - "No one every notices. Ever." Still, the main rule - "Never turn your face toward the person you're looking at. People have an extraordinary ability to notice from their peripheral vision that someone's looking at them." (p181)

In this book, written in 1992, the word "Dumpster" is capitalized. (p189)

Garbage - William Rathje, archeologist from the University of Arizona, turned "garbologist", started Le Projet du Garbage, wrote in Garbage magazine, and "punctured myths of human consumption" in America (p189) On Mexican American Garbage - "Ethnic Migration, Assimilation and Consumption", Journal of Consumer Research, Dec 1983 Melanie Wallendorf and Michael Reilly


WHO CARES and WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT

"The techniques of mass surveillance now allow marketers to find our vulnerabilities more efficiently ... Targeting has given them the power to worry us when we are not worried, to make us aware of our flaws when otherwise we might be content, to make us feel sorrow when moments before we felt only happiness. ... We expect to encounter voluminous advertising in our magazines and newspapers and have learned to ignore it." (p202-203) 

"Psychoactive Junk Mail" affects moods and thoughts a lot more than one might think, mostly in minor ways but sometimes dramatically. Suppose you are overweight... (p204)

Junk mail and junk calls are only superficial manifestations of the most troubling aspects of mass surveillance -- the fact of the surveillance itself. The surreptitious collection and coalescence of personal information constitutes nothing less than an assault on human dignity and the sanctity of self. If mass surveillance gives us the creeps, it is because the techniques intrude on ground we know to be sacred. (p206)

"At an instinctive level, many consumers feel that for a commercial entity to collect names, addresses and consumer characteristics and store it in a computer data base, without the consumer's knowledge or agreement appropriates some uniqueness from the consumer. It's a modern counterpart of the tribal native's belief that viewing photographed by the anthropologist captures and transfers some of the individual's essence ot the photo taker and could be used to manipulate him." ["Manipulate" being the key word here.] (p206) -Alain Westin in a 1990 Harris-Equifax survey

Something about this is eerily familiar in 21st century as social media platforms become the pinnacle of consumer advertising and at the same time a wholly unregulated and indefensible channel through which the whole society under its all-seeing eye becomes an eager receptor for instigatory potential, at times to nefarious ends: "The consumer marketers have installed the most sophisticated mass intelligence system in history. Despite its banal current uses, it constitutes the infrastructure of invasion, ready to disrupt the lives of millions of Americans but restrained from doing so only be reasonably benign political climate, the absence of an overwhelming national enemy, and the good judgement of the system's corporate masters. But technology, as Jacques Ellul, the French technophilosopher, argued in The Technological Society, advances along a path of its own choosing, exhausting every conceivable application along the way until restrained by law of obsolescence. By Ellul's reasoning the infrastructure of invasion will be used one day to cause most harm across the land. "History," he wrote, "shows that every technical application from it beginnings presents certain unforeseeable secondary effects which are much more disastrous than the lack of technique would have been." (p210-211)

Introduction to Chapter 12: What to Do: New Laws for a New Age: "The real danger is the gradual erosion of individual liberties through the automation, integration, and interconnection of many small, separate record-keeping systems, each of which alone may seem innocuous, even benevolent, and wholly justifiable -U.S. Privacy Protection Study Commission, 1977. (p231)

Video Privacy Protection Act of 1988 - passed with blinding speed by legislators after a Washington weekly City Paper "obtained and analyzed records of the movies rented by Judge Bork", shocked by the "brazen invasion of the sanctity of the man's cinematic tastes." (p235) [Fixing this problem sounds pretty easy all of the sudden.]

"Recombinant data" - a whole new strain of information created by cybertechnologies

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Predict This

Adobe Social gets predictive tool for hyper-targeting
Nancy Owano, Apr 27, 2013 

Predictive analytics technology offers predictive data for customers, to optimize the marketer's efforts to increase customer responses and clicks. The data analyses can be used to guide future actions that can produce best results.

...new capability offers predictive analytics, historical data-driven recommendations, self-learning (the solution learns as it goes, with continual refinements to its recommendations) and social content optimization (best time to post).

"Traditionally, social posts are composed without a measurable, data-driven connection to how they will be received, and many marketers release big news or compelling content through social channels only to find that it falls flat in terms of engagement," according to an Adobe statement about its beta.

How it works: Customers open a widget showing an estimated range for the amount of Likes, comments, and shares a post will receive. They can identify other metrics, too, for tracking. Another key Adobe Social feature is timing. The tool will indicate if the post had best be delayed for posting later. Posts are not just targeted but (using Adobe's lingo) "hyper-targeted."


More information: www.adobe.com/solutions/social-marketing.html

POST SCRIPT
Scientists identify a mathematical 'crystal ball' that may predict calamities
Oct 28, 2013, phys.org

Neuroscientists have come up with a mathematical equation that may help predict calamities such as financial crashes in economic systems and epileptic seizures in the brain.

...measure of 'information flow' reaches a peak just before a system moves from a healthy state to an unhealthy state. Such 'phase transitions' are common in many real systems, and are often highly significant: epileptic seizures and financial market crashes are just two examples of transitions.

Lead researcher Dr Lionel Barnett says: "The key insight in the paper is that the dynamics of complex systems – like the brain and the economy – depend on how their elements causally influence each other; in other words, how information flows between them. And that this information flow needs to be measured for the system as a whole, and not just locally between its various parts."

Essentially this means finding a way to characterize, mathematically, the extent to which the parts of a complex system are simultaneously segregated (they all behave differently) and integrated (they all depend on each other).

Surprising results from study of non-epileptic seizures
Loyola University Health System, link

Study finds evidence that stock prices can be predicted within a short window of time
Feb 04, 2014
The study by researchers in the Tippie College of Business suggests that price movements can be predicted with a better than 50-50 accuracy for anywhere up to one minute after the stock leaves the confines of its bid-ask spread. Probabilities continue to be significant until about five minutes after it leaves the spread. By 30 minutes, the predictability window has closed. 

IBM researchers' algorithm explores tweets for home location cues
Mar 24, 2014

From July 2011 to Aug 2011, they collected tweets from the top 100 cities in US by population. They invoked the Twitter REST API to collect each user's 200 most recent tweets (less if that user had fewer than 200 total tweets). Some users discovered to have private profiles were eliminated. The final data set had 1.5 million tweets by 9551 users. 

In listing their contributions, the IBM researchers said, when tested using the 1.52-million tweet dataset from 9551 users from 100 US cities, that their algorithm outperforms the best existing algorithms for home location prediction from tweets. "Our best method achieves accuracies of 64% for cities, 66% for states, 78% for time zones and 71% for regions." 
More information: Home Location Identification of Twitter Users, arXiv:1403.2345 [cs.SI] 


[just to point at that is must be easier to predict timezone and region based on time-patterns (people sleep at the same time, for the most part, and this shifts based on time-zones; each region brings a particular vocabulary and vernacular, place names alone, in large enough quantities, can give a good sense of where a person is, regionally.]

Forecasting future may one day become as practical as predicting weather, thanks to Big Data advances
Jun 27 2014, phys.org

Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates project, or EMBERS—Virginia Tech

In the past year, the team has used such an approach to correctly forecast many important events such as the riots after Paraguay's president was impeached, the Hantavirus outbreaks in Argentina, and the recent mass protests in Brazil and Venezuela. 

One thing this particular program does is read images of parking lots outside of health centers and hospitals to monitor upticks in "fill rate."  

Anil Vullikanti, a panelist and an associate professor of computer science, had many anecdotes regarding the role of human intervention in data forecasting.  

"You will always have people intentionally trying to clog the system with misinformation to throw you off course, but we are trained to separate the signal from the noise and minimize distractions." 

Interestingly enough, the spread of an idea is not so different from the spread of an illness. 

"Let's say you can predict the future and you intervene to prevent an uprising," Parikh says. "How can you be sure that an uprising was actually going to happen?"


[quantum theory?]

Just four bits of credit card data can identify most anyone
phys.org, Jan 2015