Showing posts with label facts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label facts. Show all posts

Monday, March 24, 2025

Facts, Fakes, Fake Facts and Psychological Operators

 

Brainwashing an entire population is hard work!

News consumers are more influenced by political alignment than by truth, study shows
Nov 2024, phys.org

The study is based on research conducted in 2020 with a sample of the voting-age U.S. population matched to the demographics of the census, and made up news headlines whereas earlier studies relied on existing ones. They also used a cover story about memory and communication, and even included foil questions, so that participants would not be aware of the nature of the study.

Both supporters and opponents believed those that aligned with their views more than they believed true headlines that did not align with their views.

"We found that the strongest predictors of bias include extreme views of Trump, a one-sided media diet, and belief in the objectivity and lack of bias of a person's own political side relative to the other side." 

In one measure of bias, the researchers assessed people's beliefs about their political side's objectivity as compared to the other side. Ironically, those most confident in their political side's lack of bias were the most biased.

In addition, the effect of partisan bias was stronger for real news than fake news. That is, people were more likely to disbelieve true information that challenged their political worldview than to accept false information that confirmed their worldview.

"We saw it on both political sides and even among people who scored well on a reasoning test. We were a bit surprised to see how widespread this tendency was. People were engaging in a lot of resistance to inconvenient truths."

"Everyone thinks it's the other person who is the problem."

But this very important point can't be overlooked, dropped halfway through the press article:

One contributing factor for this state of affairs, the researchers suggest, is increased consumption of partisan media.

And just for good measure, let's recall that as of 2010 Citizen's United allows private industry to contribute campaign funds to those running for public office. (As in, who's paying for that partisan media? Yes, that's who.) 

via: Department of Psychology in the School of Humanities and Sciences at Stanford: Michael C. Schwalbe et al, When politics trumps truth: Political concordance versus veracity as a determinant of believing, sharing, and recalling the news., Journal of Experimental Psychology: General (2024). DOI: 10.1037/xge0001650



Brief scientific literacy interventions may quash new conspiracy theories
Dec 2024, phys.org

Americans in states with higher scientific literacy scores were less likely to believe in conspiracies and had higher COVID-19 vaccination uptake rates over the time period.

via Penn State's Smeal College of Business: Nathan Allred et al, Conspiracy Beliefs and Consumption: The Role of Scientific Literacy, Journal of Consumer Research (2024). DOI: 10.1093/jcr/ucae024


A tangled web: Social media analysis suggests coordinated messaging among fossil fuel-derived hydrocarbon industries
Jan 2025, phys.org

Power rises to the top: "Our study suggests that climate obstruction in different industries is more coordinated than is generally recognized...these different companies in different sectors are using the same strategic messaging to promote a distorted image of their environmental responsibility."

Details: 125,300 unique tweets posted from 2008–2023 by the main Twitter accounts of nine key players in the US fossil energy/plastics/agrichemical trade: ExxonMobil, Chevron, American Petroleum Institute, Dow, Dupont de Nemours, Inc, American Chemistry Council, Corteva Agriscience, FMC Corp, American Farm Bureau

via Northeastern University: PLOS Climate (2025). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000370


New AI tool detects fake news with 99% accuracy
Jan 2025, phys.org

The method developed by the researchers uses an "ensemble voting" technique, which combines the predictions of multiple different machine learning models to give an overall score.

(Too bad we don't actually care; see above.)

via Keele University School of Computer Science and Mathematics: Patricia Asowo et al, An Ensemble Modelling of Feature Engineering and Predictions for Enhanced Fake News Detection, Artificial Intelligence XLI (2024). DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-77918-3_16


Meta-analysis uncovers public's skill in detecting fake news, but skepticism towards true news persists
Mar 2025, phys.org

While their findings suggest that most people can accurately judge the veracity of news, they also showed that people are slightly better at spotting false news than true news. In other words, most of the people who took part in the studies appeared to be better skilled at rating false news as false than rating true news as true.

"A small majority of people show this trend (59%). The implication of this finding is that we should focus more on increasing the acceptance of true news. Currently, a lot of efforts are dedicated to making people skeptical of (false) news, however, our data shows that there may be more room to increase the acceptance of true news than to reduce the acceptance of false news."

I also remember the study about how mainstream news being skeptical of a science fact are more influential than a fake news site spreading obvious fake shit, for example BBC saying there may be a small risk of myocarditis for example, even if they have a million other articles that say vaccines are safe. There is a risk of myocarditis, but the risk of dying, or becoming disabled, from Covid due to lack of vaccination is far, far higher. See here or here.

via Jan Pfänder et al, Spotting false news and doubting true news: a systematic review and meta-analysis of news judgements, Nature Human Behaviour (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41562-024-02086-1.

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Hide Your Hypotheses, Machine Learning is Coming


Big data, machine learning, artificial intelligence - whatever you want to call it - is moving so fast, and making predictions so unexpected, that it's almost making us look stupid. But we're not. That's how science is supposed to work. 

Image credit: Copy of Ernst Haeckel's 1886 Tree of Life by Paul D Stewart


New research shows gene exchange between viruses and hosts drives evolution
Jan 2022, phys.org

First a reminder of how complicated this all is:

"The first comprehensive analysis of viral horizontal gene transfer..."

HGT allows genes to jump between species including viruses and their hosts. If the gene does something useful, it can sweep through the population and become a feature of that species. This can lead to a rapid emergence of new abilities, as opposed to the more incremental changes that result from smaller mutations.

via  University of British Columbia: Nicholas A. T. Irwin et al, Systematic evaluation of horizontal gene transfer between eukaryotes and viruses, Nature Microbiology (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41564-021-01026-3


Study finds new patterns of antibiotic resistance spread in hospitals
Apr 2022, phys.org

What's really happening is so much more complicated that we thought. You think you know, but you have no idea:

The findings suggest that specific genes, rather than entire organisms, were circulating in hospitals—in some cases, for many years. Notably, the team discovered antibiotic resistance gene transfer between bacteria, connecting patient infections in new ways and also helping to explain the large diversity of CRE species and strains in these hospitals. Typically, hospitals would not connect outbreaks of different CRE species such as E. coli and Klebsiella, but the research team says that information from Salamzade's tool could make hospitals more aware of potential hospital reservoirs for gene exchange and inform epidemiological investigations into antibiotic resistant infections.

"Hospital epidemiology would never find this with more traditional methods," said Earl. "I would argue that this is the kind of thing even our standard genomics approaches wouldn't find. It really took having a hypothesis, building up an approach to allow us to test that hypothesis in a really rigorous way, and then stepping back to look at the data."

via Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard: Rauf Salamzade et al, Inter-species geographic signatures for tracing horizontal gene transfer and long-term persistence of carbapenem resistance, Genome Medicine (2022). DOI: 10.1186/s13073-022-01040-y


Researchers adapt social network analysis to model virus evolution
May 2022, phys.org

Even basic assumptions are wrong:

New research from Western University suggests some viruses evolve more like a dynamic social network—rather than a rigid tree, as was previously believed—recombining with one another to create a web of intersecting subtypes. 

via University of Western Ontario: Abayomi S. Olabode et al, Revisiting the recombinant history of HIV-1 group M with dynamic network community detection, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2022). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2108815119


New research shows gene exchange between viruses and hosts drives evolution
Jan 2022, phys.org

Just a reminder of how complicated this all is:

"The first comprehensive analysis of viral horizontal gene transfer..."

HGT allows genes to jump between species including viruses and their hosts. If the gene does something useful, it can sweep through the population and become a feature of that species. This can lead to a rapid emergence of new abilities, as opposed to the more incremental changes that result from smaller mutations.

via  University of British Columbia: Nicholas A. T. Irwin et al, Systematic evaluation of horizontal gene transfer between eukaryotes and viruses, Nature Microbiology (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41564-021-01026-3


Mostly unrelated posts, just highlighting the scientific method hard at work:
Counting bug splats on vehicle license plates shows numbers of flying insects has dropped significantly
May 2022, phys.org

Participants were asked to clean their license plates before heading out on a journey in their vehicle and then to photograph and count the number of bugs they found splattered on the plates when they returned.

The researchers found the number of splats recorded dropped dramatically over the course of the study—total numbers were 58.5% lower at the end of the study than at the beginning (2004 - 2021).

via Kent Wildlife Trust: The Bugs Matter Citizen Science Survey


Self-eliminating genes tested on mosquitoes
May 2022, phys.org

Temporary, self-deleting genetic changes that don't permanently alter wild populations' genetic makeup

via Texas A&M University: Keun Chae et al, Engineering a self-eliminating transgene in the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, PNAS Nexus (2022). DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac037


Post Script:
I'm not sure what to call it, but I'm seeing a pattern emerge, maybe a new category of headlines, something about the unforeseen implications of the climate apocalypse?

Lake Mead: Shrinking reservoir reveals more human remains
May 2022, BBC News

Mount Everest: Melting glaciers expose dead bodies
Mar 2019, BBC News

Monday, September 30, 2013

Facts vs Values in Science

Science, performing some social hygiene:
(and using what else but climate change as the primary example)


Better scientific policy decisions start with knowing facts from values
phys.org, Aug 2013

When gathering public input on policy questions, scientists can speak with authority about facts, but must remember that everyone is an expert when it comes to values.

"Using climate change as an example, a scientist could say, 'The climate is changing.' That's a fact that can be checked," said Thomas Dietz, a member of the MSU Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability (CSIS) and professor of sociology, environmental science and policy, and animal studies.

"But if a scientist says, 'We need to take these actions to halt climate change because it's affecting what people care about,' that's a value. And scientists have no more authority to speak about values than anyone else. Everyone is qualified to speak about values."

Bringing values and deliberation to science communication, Thomas Dietz, 2013
This paper results from the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences, “The Science of Science Communication,” held May 21–22, 2012, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, DC. The complete program and audio files of most presentations are available on the NAS Web site at www.nasonline.org/science-communication.

see also:
Anthropogenic Metadata on Climate Science
aka The Low-Hanging Fruit of Neuro-Pop in the Age of Big Datty
July 21, 2013