Showing posts with label power. Show all posts
Showing posts with label power. Show all posts

Thursday, August 10, 2023

Notes on The Alphabetization of the Popular Mind


by Ivan Illich and Barry Sanders, 1988

It's a book about how society was turned inside out by the spread of writing in the Middle Ages.
  • While talking about the origins of written language in prehistoric societies -- "Writing is the only technique we know of for making the flow of speech coagulate and for carrying clots of language along intact for tens or even hundreds of years ... nuggets of frozen speech can be carried along in culture. (p5-6)
  • "The new use of documents together with a new way of shaping the written page, turned writing, which in the Early and High Middle Ages had been extolled and honored as a mysterious embodiment of the Word of God, into a constituent-element in the mediation of mundane relations." (p32)
  • "The swearing of an oath makes the word visible -- not on paper but in the living body of the person concerned," and guaranteed by the family, clan and society. (p34)
  • And then everything changes and you swear on your Bible and not on your beard. 
  • On time in text, from relative to absolute - Time used to be related to significant events that people would remember, a feast, a wedding, a visit from a sovereign. "By the end of the 14th century, the date on a charter could even be tied to the mechanical tower-clock ... Memory grew a new dimension. Memories could now be shelved behind each other, not according to their importance or affinity, but according to the date from which they issue." (p42)
  • On Writing - You didn't write with pen in hand, you spoke to a scribe (Dictation). (p44-45)
  • Last words on a death bed became the last will document.
  • By the end of the 13th century, libraries became places of silence. (p51)
  • On Latin and the difference between universal Latin and local dialects -- "Every monk learned the Latin pronunciation of his own monastery. If he walked from Subiaco to Fulda, his feet bore him no faster than his ear was able to adjust itself to new pronunciations." (p58)
  • Latin as the first language to be written, not exclusively spoken (p59) i.e., a dead language; only a dead language that's not spoken can never change and therefore be referenced throughout history.
  • Works are written in Latin, but the reader is supposed to read it aloud in their own vernacular tongue, even if that was French or German. (p61-62)
  • reshape -> Latin fingere -> fiction (p84)
  • "Only when memory is perceived as a text can thought become a material to be shaped..." The transformation of truth to fiction could only occur with the separation of the first-person subjective "self" experience and the consensual reality experience by writing. (p84)
  • Lying didn't exist prior to writing (?).
  • Regarding Authorship and ChatGPT - Scribes and clerics used to state that they are not the source, only its channel; likewise the dictator states they did not invent it (with their finger, fingere, fiction) (p86~)
  • DeFoe's Plague Year 1772 was the first English novel, i.e., work of fiction (although Canterbury Tales was 1382)
  • On Forgetting vs Memory in Literature (p93)
  • ...and this is why all the early novels start out saying, "this is a story some other guy told me" like pirate stories and Treasure Island.
  • in Plague Year, the "real story" is how the bulletins of deaths (called the Bill of Plague) spread like contagion, but also they lend veracity to the story because they provide certified documents...
  • The Plague Bill itself is the protagonist (can't see a virus!)
 

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

To Shape the Future

Crystal balls over here

Predicting the future with the wisdom of crowds
Jun 2017, phys.org

Don Moore and a team of researchers found a new way to improve that outcome by training ordinary people to make more confident and accurate predictions over time as superforecasters.

The team, working on The Good Judgment Project, had the perfect opportunity to test its future-predicting methods during a four-year government-funded geopolitical forecasting tournament sponsored by the United States Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. The tournament, which began in 2011, aimed to improve geopolitical forecasting and intelligence analysis by tapping the wisdom of the crowd. Moore's team proved so successful in the first years of the competition that it bumped the other four teams from a national competition, becoming the only funded project left in the competition.

The study differs from previous research in overconfidence in forecasting because it examines accuracy in forecasting over time, using a huge and unique data set gathered during the tournament. That data included 494,552 forecasts by 2,860 forecasters who predicted the outcomes of hundreds of events.

The Wisdom of Crowds
James Surowiecki, 2004

Swarm A.I. Correctly Predicts the Kentucky Derby, Accurately Picking all Four Horses of the Superfecta at 540 to 1 Odds
Yahoo Finance, April 2016

The Chinese Flesh Engine
BBC 2014

POST SCRIPT

This kind of thing always reminds me of a passage from Levy-Bruhl's Primitive Mentality - the indigenous people he writes about are perplexed at the ability of the white scientists to "predict" a lunar eclipse.

They live in a timeless world. Hence, for example, an omen doesn’t just reveal what will happen, it is evidence that it is already happening.

They ask of the whites – how could you predict it (a lunar eclipse) if it was not you who caused it?

I have also found, among some folks who have less of a functioning prefrontal cortex if you know what I'm saying will tend to blame the person who predicts the situation as if they caused it. Take for example, an angsty adolescent - you tell them not to do something because of some probable result (don't smoke pot in the high school bathroom because you'll probably get caught) they will blame you as if your prediction actually caused the outcome. Some of us are no different from Levy-Bruhl's "primitives".

Primitive Mentality, Lucien Levy-Bruhl, 1923, trans 1966

Primitive Mentality
Network Address 2012