Showing posts with label decision-making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decision-making. Show all posts

Monday, May 22, 2023

How the Sausage is Made


Predicting human group sizes with physics
Jan 2023, phys.org

People behaving like particles with spin: Only by knowing the average number of friends each person has, scientists were able to predict the group sizes of people in a computer game, modeled on the self-organization of particles with spin, and with social stress as comparable to energy in physics.

This model was able to predict the distribution of group size in the multiplayer online game Pardus. "Normally you would need to know the structure of the network and how it is designed," Korbel explains the results. "Here we only need to know how many friends a player has on average." With this relatively small amount of information, the researchers were able to predict how many groups of a certain size would appear.

via Complexity Science Hub Vienna: Jan Korbel et al, Homophily-Based Social Group Formation in a Spin Glass Self-Assembly Framework, Physical Review Letters (2023). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.130.057401


Exploring the neural mechanisms behind how social networks shape our decisions
Mar 2023, phys.org

"Essentially, our brain tends to assign higher weight to the observations by better connected neighbors and down-weight or even ignore the observations by less connected neighbors, even when these neighbors have valuable information," Zhu explained. "We found that activity in a part of our brain called dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, which typically implicated in adjusting our behavior to adapt to the external environment, tracks how well connected a neighbor is at the time when the brain is processing a decision observed from the neighbor."

Which is interesting because we know that novel information comes from the outside fringe people who are less connected to any one group, yet hold more connections to more otherwise un-connected groups...

via Peking University: Yaomin Jiang et al, Neurocomputational mechanism of real-time distributed learning on social networks, Nature Neuroscience (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41593-023-01258-y.


How miscommunication can be constructive during problem-solving in diverse groups
Mar 2023, phys.org

"Higher-ability groups tend to think about a problem in the same way when making predictions or finding solutions," explains Muldoon. "They end up exploring the same spots. Diverse groups collectively are able to explore more options, increasing the chance of bigger successes."

"Some miscommunication can make errors worse, while other examples of miscommunication can diminish the harm that might come from those errors," 

"What we found is that how we organize groups matters a great deal when we're evaluating the benefits of diversity—especially when we can miscommunicate," 

via University of Buffalo: Keith Hankins et al, Does (mis)communication mitigate the upshot of diversity?, PLOS ONE (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283248

Unrelated image credit: Stanford Torus by Alexander Preuss

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Mandibulips and the Swarm Amplified Human


It starts out like this -- our body parts are already a swarm. We take it for granted that our body parts know where they are and what they're doing, and can talk to each other. "Stereotypical body control is taken care of by neural subsystems so that the conscious cognitive system can deal with more complex world dynamics." -link

What we don't take for granted, and what we might even find uncomfortable to imagine because it means radically redefining the human condition, is that our assemblage of body parts will one day extend to the technosphere of nanobots, controlled not by us alone but by an emergent swarm cognition consisting of all the nodes in our extended neural network, and all of this wired directly into our own big bundle of blinking neurons in our head.

But then, in the same way these "nodes" of flying, crawling, swimming bots will join with us, our body parts will disarticulate to become part of the greater network. In the beginning, we will need "humans-in-the-loop," but eventually, we will need bigger and more centralized centers of control to interact with control the decentralized swarms. There will be humans in the loop, only a bit more efficient, so that one human will control multiple body-swarm entities. Your hands will no longer be your own. We will share everything. Today, your privacy is gone, tomorrow, the body itself. 

A theoretical approach for designing a self-organizing human-swarm system
Aug 2021, phys.org
Bio-inspired metaphor for design, the swarm-amplified human, which essentially proposes that the swarm should self-organize itself into and act like human body parts."

The paper highlights the potential benefits of using human state classification as a control input fed to a robot swarm, rather than having a human user controlling the swarm at all times.

"Designing robot swarms that are an extension of the human body relates to integrating neural logic into robot swarms on the network level, which has received only limited attention so far," Hasbach said. "We have proposed some ideas on how robot swarms could be thought of as neural systems."
^That's just the press release for this theoretical framework. I'd like to paste a few lines from the paper itself because if I didn't tell you, you might think it came from a good scifi novel. In other words, you can't make this stuff up:
Because no holistic theory has been explicitly formulated that can inform how humans and robot swarms should interact.

Joint human–swarm loops, that is, a cybernetic system made of human, swarm and interface. 

An intelligent system that balances between centralized and decentralized control.

The robot swarm should be integrated into the human’s low-level nervous system function.

The swarm amplified human treats the swarm as an extension of the human nervous system, integrated at low-level sensory–motor behaviour

Interfacing at the low-level nervous system means essentially two things (Figure 9). First, as said before, low-level stereotypic sensory–motor control often feels automatic to the conscious mind. When walking down the street, you rarely think about walking. Therefore, the (cognitive) state of humans should be translated by the interface into commands for the swarm clusters. This is referred to as passive or implicit interaction, that is, unconscious control, which can be contrasted to active/explicit control (e.g. deliberate gesture control).

This feeling of being in control over the swarm clusters (alias artificial body parts

The SAH [swarm amplified human], therefore, relates to the notion of a cyborg that ‘[…] deliberately incorporates exogenous components extending the self-regulatory control function of the organism in order to adapt it to new environments’
-Clynes, M. E., Kline, N. S. (1960). Cyborgs and space. Astronautics, 5, 26–27.

Rather than claiming that neural networks and biological swarms share the actual same computational basis, we argue that both can be modelled as self-organizing systems. Thus, both humans and swarms are abstracted into one common computational reference frame to integrate the swarm at the low-level of neural sensory–motor loops. 

swarm amplified human - figure 11

Humans also need training to learn sensory–motor patterns for their real body parts. No human baby is able to walk after birth... Similarly, the operator should be exposed to different situations so that he is able to develop an intuition of swarm dynamics as well as how his own states influence these dynamics. 

A more biologically plausible and more efficient algorithm may be a searching robot chain that originates from the human, similar to growing biological axons that are guided by molecular cues.

Human agent moving through a swarm gradient

By convergence, global information about the environment can be estimated by the swarm connectome and provided to the human, similar to sensory upstreams in the biological nervous system.

To include the swarm in the human’s nervous system, the brain must be tricked into integrating the swarm into its body representation. This is achieved if the human operator has the illusion that the swarm feels like part of himself, if it feels like an artificial body part. 

In the future, Tom may be equipped with an advanced brain–computer interface technology that provides high-resolution classifications of cognitive states and adapted sensory–motor signals. This could allow him, for example, to feel the location (i.e. the direction and the distance) of a victim, alike to having a sixth sense, while allocating more robots to the estimated location of the victim, similar to closing your hands around an object.

Rather than being the target of the interaction, the swarm should self-organize as the interface between the human operator and relevant features of the environment. This mimics the formation of neural pathways in the nervous system that are tuned to relevant environmental stimuli.
Notes:
via Fraunhofer Institute for Communication, Information Processing and Ergonomics (FKIE) and University of Bonn in Germany: The design of self-organizing human-swarm intelligence. Jonas D Hasbach, Maren Bennewitz. Adaptive Behavior (2021). DOI: 10.1177/10597123211017550

New Word:
Excursively - given to making excursions in speech, thought, etc.; wandering; digressive. Example: Robustness and scalability is created by treating the swarm as a distributed neural machinery that excursively relies on local interactions. 

Post Script:
"So quite ya yappin' fore I get to clappin'
And have your body parts mix and matching fella"
-What Happened to That Boy, Birdman feat. Clipse (Neptunes), 2002

Post Post Script:
Happened to see this from an older post, but it doesn't hurt to plaster this one all over town until it gets old (it never gets old)
Dec 2011, Nature

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Wiser Than You Think

The Crowd and The Life of Brian

Here at Network Address we've been interested in wisdom of the crowds for some time now. But as evidence like this starts to come out more, I wonder how much of this "wisdom of the crowds" thing has actually already been optimized by a kind of democratic voting system that we already have in place in a lot of developed countries? Like, have we known about Galton's ex-weighing trick for centuries and that's the reason why we vote the way we do? And we're just re-learning it again now because of an advance in technology?

And on the other hand, can we just translate all this to AI, because you know, they might do it better than us. (They?)

Crowds within crowd found to outperform 'wisdom of the crowd'
Jan 2018, phys.org


Post Script

The Wisdom of Crowds
James Surowiecki, 2004

Swarm A.I. Correctly Predicts the Kentucky Derby, Accurately Picking all Four Horses of the Superfecta at 540 to 1 Odds
Yahoo Finance, April 2016

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Comedy of the Commons

Balinese rice patties

Fractal patterns

Fractal planting patterns yield optimal harvests, without central control
Jun 2017, phys.org

Balinese rice farmers make some crazy patterns with their rice fields, but they don't do this on purpose. The rice fields plant themselves in this pattern, using the rice farmers. Just kidding, or not.

These farmers are all part of the same group, using the same resources, that being their rice patties. They plant their rice based on a whole bunch of variables, including the planting patterns of the other farmers who share the patties, and the amount of water flowing down the river. All of these variables are interdependent, such that the farmers in one area may change the amount of water in the river depending on when they plant, which in turn changes when other farmers will plant.

All of this decision-making, however, does not go through a centralized process, and although the farmers are making their own decisions, the final pattern of planted rice fields was not decided by them alone, but by the interaction and feedback of the system as a whole.

from the article:

"What is exciting scientifically is that this is in contrast to the tragedy of the commons, where the global optimum is not reached because everyone is maximizing his individual profit. This is what we are experiencing typically when egoistic people are using a limited resource on the planet, everyone optimizes the individual payoff and never reach an optimum for all," he says.

The scientists find that under these assumptions, the planting patterns become fractal, which is indeed the case as they confirm with satellite imagery. "Fractal patterns are abundant in natural systems but are relatively rare in man-made systems," explains Thurner. These fractal patterns make the system more resilient than it would otherwise be. "The system becomes remarkably stable, again without any planning—stability is the outcome of a remarkably simple but efficient self-organized process. And it happens extremely fast. In reality, it does not even take ten years for the system to reach this state," Thurner says.

notes:
The Tragedy of the Commons

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Mimetic Desire



The object only has value according to how much it is desired by another...mimetic desire

We borrow our desires from others. Far from being autonomous, our desire for a certain object is always provoked by the desire of another person — the model — for this same object.

All desire is a desire to be [someone else]
1994. Quand ces choses commenceront ... Entretiens avec Michel Treguer. Paris: arléa. ISBN 2-86959-300-7. p28
Rene Girard



Post Script:

Peer pressure's influence calculated by mathematician
phys.org, Oct 09, 2013

Professor Ernesto Estrada, of the University of Strathclyde's Department of Mathematics and Statistics, examined the effect of direct and indirect social influences – otherwise known as peer pressure – on how decisions are reached on important issues. Using mathematical models, he analysed data taken from 15 networks – including US school superintendents and Brazilian farmers – to outline peer pressure's crucial role in society.

How Peer Pressure Shapes Consensus, Leadership, and Innovations in Social Groups
link, Provided by University of Strathclyde, Glasgow

the process begins when individuals directly connected to each other first reach agreement, then – under the influence of peers not directly connected to them – the entire social group eventually tips into a collective consensus. He said: "Consider a teenager who is pressed by her friends into binge-drinking on a Saturday night – this corresponds to the direct pressure exerted by the peers connected to that individual.

"However, she is also under indirect pressure, by seeing that many teenagers are doing the same every Saturday. Thus, this indirect pressure could make the difference in that individual to copy a given attitude."

In social groups in which indirect peer pressure is largely absent, the extent to which its leaders share the same views plays a critical role in the length of time it takes to reach agreement on issues. However, when there is strong indirect peer pressure, the role of the local leaders vanishes and individuals with no important positions in their networks can become the leaders of the group.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Thought Gravity


Amazon Patents Gravity-Based Links to Pull You In
Roberto Baldwin 03.01.13, Wired

Amazon has patented a system that pulls the pointer toward a link or button, just the thing to help you click links — and buy products associated with those links.

If you’ve ever hit the wrong button or link on a touchscreen, you know the frustration of tapping repeatedly and still missing the link or button. Amazon’s Gravity-Based Link Assist patent fixes that by creating a gravitational field of sorts around linkable objects that pull the pointer toward tiny links and buttons.
Amazon’s Gravity-Based Link Assist patent

the illusion of control

Leaving the thread to 'prediction analytics in human dynamics' for another day (Barabasi's Bursts),

It's become so easy to imagine things like this within the neural interface, reducing our own cognitive power necessary to achieve accuracy. Today we blame google for making us forgetful of facts. But Tomorrow...

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Crowdsourcing


Meet the Genius Behind the Trillion-Dollar Coin and the Plot to Breach the Debt Ceiling
RYAN TATE 01.10.13
modified:

“It was really a pointless conversation” 
...underlines how ad-hoc online communities, like an anonymous international band of commenters, are increasingly able to move their ideas from the fringes into the middle of political debate.
Goliard Figures, in Umberto Eco, The Infinity of Lists, 2008. p. 263.

It may have started as a game, but Beowulf and his pals are poised to inject an important new tactic into oversight of the government’s monetary institutions.

The coin hack even surprised and impressed former U.S. Mint director Philip Diehl, who co-authored the law that enabled the platinum loophole in the first place.
“When I first heard about the idea to mint a trillion-dollar coin, I was very surprised,” says Diehl. “But because I know that law backwards and forwards, I knew immediately that the guy who came up with the idea was right."
http://www.wired.com/business/2013/01/trillion-dollar-coin-inventor

But it wasn't 'a guy' who 'came up with' the idea, it was many.