Climate change might be the single best case study we have for understanding not just misinformation but memetic propagation in general; it affects literally everyone on the planet (except the richest 5,000 people who aren't really affected by anything) and it's a really big deal, and it's happening at a time when we can monitor almost 100% of the world's communications; great opportunity.
Climate change: Why disinformation is so persistent
Nov 2023, phys.org
- The team developed and tested six psychological interventions on nearly 7,000 participants from twelve countries
- One third of the population still doubts or disputes climate change
- This phenomenon can be explained by the disinformation spread by certain companies and lobbies over the last 50 years.
- For instance, these messages can take the form of an unfounded questioning of the scientific consensus or an overestimation of the socio-financial burden of climate policies
- "We found that the protective effect of our strategies is small and disappears after the second exposure to disinformation"
"Disinformation is therefore extremely persuasive, seemingly more so than scientific information."
via University of Geneva: Tobia Spampatti et al, Psychological inoculation strategies to fight climate disinformation across 12 countries, Nature Human Behaviour (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01736-0
Here's an example of how fossil fuel companies are shifting the blame onto Big Meat, thereby lessening the perceived impact of their own industries:
Pregnant women are missing vital nutrients, a situation that could worsen with plant-based foods
Dec 2023, phys.org
"The push to reduce our dependence on meat and dairy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is likely to further deplete expecting mothers of vital nutrients, which could have lasting effects on unborn children.
"Our study shows that almost every woman trying to conceive had insufficient levels of one or more vitamin, and this figure is only going to get worse as the world moves towards plant-based diets.
"People think that nutrient deficiency only affects people in underdeveloped countries - but it is also affecting the majority of women."
via University of Southampton: eith Godfrey et al, Maternal B-vitamin and vitamin D status before, during, and after pregnancy and the influence of supplementation preconception and during pregnancy, PLoS Medicine (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004260
I am always wondering this number (seriously), so here it is:
Researchers calculated the UK's greenhouse gas emissions from people exhaling: Here's what they found
Dec 2023, phys.org
The UK population collectively breathes out about 1,100 tons of methane and nitrous oxide every year; that's 0.05% and 0.1% of the UK's total human-generated emissions of the two gases respectively.
The CO₂ in human breath is essentially "carbon neutral. As part of the respiration process, we consume fuels like sugars and fats, converting them into water and the carbon dioxide we then breathe out, so our exhalation contributes no more to climate change than we mitigate through growing crops.
via University of Edinburgh: Ben Dawson et al, Measurements of methane and nitrous oxide in human breath and the development of UK scale emissions, PLOS ONE (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295157
2023's record heat partly driven by 'mystery' process
Jan 2024, phys.org
via an interview with NASA's top climatologist Gavin Schmidt by AFP; but I'm paraphrasing his responses for brevity:
- Can you put what we saw in 2023 into perspective?
- It wasn't just a record. It was a record that broke the previous record by a record margin.
- The long term trends we understand, ... But what happened in 2023 was that, and then plus something. And that 'plus something' is much larger than we expect, or as yet can explain.
- What are the leading hypotheses for that 'plus something'?
- Earth's energy imbalances, aerosols, El Niño, Antarctic and North Atlantic activity.
Did you get that? Not record breaking, record-record breaking. (And it's a total mystery.)
Investors are 'flying blind' to risk of climate lawsuits, researchers say
Jan 2024, phys.org
Investors end up investing in the wrong projects and run risks that neither they nor regulators understand.
For example, U.S. oil and gas giant Chevron could be liable for up to $8.5 trillion alone, according to the authors' estimates. In 1990–2019, the company's profits were $291 billion. "It's possible that Chevron's business may in fact be net value destroying,"
Not just planet destroying, but value destroying.
via University of Oxford: Thom Wetzer et al, Climate risk assessments must engage with the law, Science (2024). DOI: 10.1126/science.adj0598
Uncertainty abounds in seeding the sky to fight climate change, says study
Jan 2024, phys.org
We don't know what it will do, but we will do it anyway
Recent studies have shown that the use of solid materials such as alumina, calcite, or even diamond particles could more effectively cool the climate while simultaneously reducing these side effects. However, there is limited understanding of how solid material injection affects the stratospheric ozone layer.
The new research found that although alumina injection may have an advantage over sulfur dioxide in terms of reduced local stratospheric heating, there are "significant uncertainties" in estimating such injections' impact on the ozone layer.
The scenarios they tested would inject about 5 megatons of alumina particles into the stratosphere per year, which would compensate for about a quarter of the present-day radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers estimate that the global mean ozone loss from these scenarios could range from negligible to as much as 9%, which is about twice the historical peak of ozone loss from chlorofluorocarbons in the 1990s.
via Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zürich, Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science at Harvard University, and the American Geophysical Union: Sando Vattioni et al, Chemical Impact of Stratospheric Alumina Particle Injection for Solar Radiation Modification and Related Uncertainties, Geophysical Research Letters (2023). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105889
Most Earth system models are missing key piece of future climate puzzle, researchers say
Jan 2024, phys.org
Maybe something to keep in mind when hearing about the Great Climate Anomaly of 2023
1. "What happens to the carbon in permafrost is one of the biggest unknowns about our future climate"
2. Earth system models (ESMs) are supercomputer-driven programs that can forecast future carbon emissions and climate dynamics. But most science research funding operates on a three-year funding cycle; too brief a time to train up model developers or to complete model development steps before teams turn over. (Read: AI please help us.)
Our understanding of the permafrost has drastically improved over the last 15 years, and we're not keeping up.
via Woodwell Climate Research Center: Earth system models must include permafrost carbon processes, Nature Climate Change (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01909-9
Study shows much more pollution leaking into atmosphere from oil sands operations than thought
Jan 2024, phys.org
Read where it says we've been using the oil companies for information but now we thought we would do something more pragmatic like fly over the space and record the emissions, you know like we'll go see for ourselves because you're completely lying about everything you do:
Analysis of the samples showed that toxic emissions in the samples were on average 1,900% to over 6,300% of levels reported by standard methods. The researchers point out that such levels indicate that air pollutants released by extraction of bitumen from oil sands are equivalent to all other sources of similar emissions across Canada combined.
Right.
via Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering at Yale and Air Quality Research Division at Environment and Climate Change Canada: Megan He et al, Total organic carbon measurements reveal major gaps in petrochemical emissions reporting, Science (2024). DOI: 10.1126/science.adj6233
Most clean power purchasing strategies do little to cut emissions
Jan 2024, phys.org
Today's most common procurement strategy - known as volumetric or annual matching - proved to be almost entirely ineffective in reducing long-term emissions in the U.S., and because companies can claim full decarbonization by simply calculating their total annual energy consumption and procuring enough clean energy to match that yearly consumption, regardless of when it is actually produced.
Instead, the temporal matching approach the researchers studied consistently succeeded in driving down system-wide emissions because it addresses the temporal mismatch between clean energy production and consumption. By requiring companies to procure their clean energy at the same time as they consume energy, the approach drives investments beyond wind and solar to include energy storage and firm clean energy technologies.
via Princeton: Qingyu Xu et al, System-level impacts of voluntary carbon-free electricity procurement strategies, Joule (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2023.12.007
Geoengineering may slow Greenland ice sheet loss, finds modeling study
Jan 2024, phys.org
Stratospheric aerosol injection, or SAI
SICOPOLIS model simulations showed that stratospheric aerosol injection of sulfur dioxide would have a clear protective effect on the Greenland Ice Sheet, reducing sea level rise by about 30% compared to the worst-case scenario.
via University of Lapland and the Institute of Low Temperature Sciences at Hokkaido University: John C. Moore et al, Reduced Ice Loss From Greenland Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface (2023). DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007112
