Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Climate Things for Thought


Scientists warn that many dangerous feedback loops make climate action more urgent
Feb 2023, phys.org

20 physical loops like albedo and 21 biological loops like wetlands or peatlands:
Because these feedbacks may not yet be fully incorporated into climate models, current emissions drawdown plans could fail to adequately limit future warming. 

via Conservation Biology Institute and Oregon State University: Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for massive climate action, One Earth (2023). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004


US housing market overvalued by $200 billion due to unpriced climate risks, says study
Feb 2023, phys.org

"Increasing flood risk under climate change is creating a bubble that threatens the stability of the US housing market. As we've seen in California in the last few weeks*, these aren't hypotheticals and the risk is more extensive than expected—and that risk carries an enormous cost," said Jesse Gourevitch, a postdoctoral fellow at Environmental Defense Fund and lead author of the study.

"These risks are largely unaccounted for in property transactions, encouraging development in flood-prone areas. Accurately pricing the costs of flooding in home values can support adaptation to flood risk, but may leave many worse off."

Currently, more than 14.6 million properties in the United States face at least a 1 percent annual probability of flooding, with expected annual damages to residential properties exceeding $32 billion. Increasing frequency and severity of flooding under climate change is predicted to increase the number of properties exposed to flooding by 11 percent and average annual losses by at least 26 percent by 2050.

*Circa Feb 2023 - 12 "atmospheric rivers" deluge California in three months, bringing the historic "Triple Dip La Nina" to it's climax on the US West Coast.

via Resources for the Future, Environmental Defense Fund, First Street Foundation, the Federal Reserve: Jesse Gourevitch, Unpriced climate risk and the potential consequences of overvaluation in US housing markets, Nature Climate Change (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01594-8.


NASA space mission takes stock of carbon dioxide emissions by countries
Mar 2023, phys.org

NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission helped researchers track carbon dioxide emissions for more than 100 countries around the world. The pilot project offers a powerful new look at the carbon dioxide being emitted in these countries and how much of it is removed from the atmosphere by forests and other carbon-absorbing "sinks" within their borders. 

Traditional activity-based (or "bottom-up") approaches to carbon measurement rely on tallying and estimating how much carbon dioxide is being emitted. But that's hard. Top-down measurement can help. 

via NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Brendan Byrne et al, National CO2 budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations in support of the global stocktake, Earth System Science Data (2023). DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-963-2023


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