Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Phantom Goalposts


‘Rain bursts’ over Sydney have intensified 40% over last two decades, research finds
Nov 2022, The Guardian

The rate of intensification was far greater than what was predicted with climate change.

“At first we thought it was a problem with the data,” he said.


New York City's greenery absorbs a surprising amount of its carbon emissions
Jan 2023, phys.org

On many summer days (but not winter), photosynthesis by trees and grasses absorbs all the carbon emissions produced by cars, trucks and buses, and then some.

Most previous studies have calculated carbon uptake of vegetation by looking mainly at contiguous tracts of forest and grassland, but these comprise only about 10 percent of the metro area. Using newly available aerial radar imagery of New York City that mapped vegetation in unprecedented 6-inch grids, Wei and her colleagues included developed areas—the other 90 percent of the region, left out in most models. 

In other words, just when you thought climate science was at the top of everyone's agenda, you realize we know very little about a whole lot. And in light of this recent discovery, it makes you wonder how much of the carbon gas problem is really from de-vegetated cities and towns? Not to cast doubt on the contribution of fossil fuels, but where would we be today if we had been more conservative about vegetation, trees in particular, when developing for example the sprawling supermetropolis that is the United States East Coast? Factor the much more local heat island effect, and consider the difference in overall quality of life we'd be getting out of our built environment. (But also remember that landowners in the suburbs like grass and not trees, and that poorly funded municipal public works departments find it easier to maintain a town with no vegetation at all.)

via Columbia University: Dandan Wei et al, High resolution modeling of vegetation reveals large summertime biogenic CO2 fluxes in New York City, Environmental Research Letters (2022). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aca68f



Reducing steel corrosion is vital to combating climate change: Study
Jan 2023, phys.org

Global steel production has been rising steadily for decades—and because steel has poor resistance to corrosion (aka rust), part of that demand is to replace steel used in construction materials that have become corroded over time, in everything from bridges to automobiles. Reducing the amount of steel that needs to be replaced due to corrosion could have measurable effects on how much greenhouse gases are produced to make steel.

Using historical carbon dioxide intensity data to estimate carbon dioxide levels per year beginning from 1960, the researchers found that in 2021, steel production accounted for 27% of the carbon emissions of the global manufacturing sector, and about 10.5% of the total global carbon emissions worldwide. Corroded steel replacement accounted for about 1.6 to 3.4% of emissions.

Greenhouse gas emissions produced by the steel industry could reach about 27.5% of the world's total carbon emissions by 2030, with corroded steel representing about 4 to 9% of that number (is that 1 - 3% of the total?).

But there is some good news, the study noted. Due to regulations placed on the steel industry, technological advances in the steelmaking process have resulted in a 61% reduction in energy consumption over the last 50 years.

via The Ohio State University: M. Iannuzzi et al, The carbon footprint of steel corrosion, npj Materials Degradation (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41529-022-00318-1


Planting more trees could decrease deaths from higher summer temperatures in cities by a third, modeling study suggests
Feb 2023, phys.org

Of the 57 million inhabitants of 93 European cities circa 2015, 6,700 premature deaths could be attributed to hotter urban temperatures during the summer months, accounting for 4.3% of summer mortality and 1.8% of year-round mortality. One in three of these deaths (2,644 total) could have been prevented by increasing tree cover up to 30%, and therefore reducing temperatures. This corresponds to 39.5% of all deaths attributable to hotter urban temperatures, 1.8% of all summer deaths, and 0.4% of year-round deaths.

via Barcelona Institute for Global Health: Cooling cities through urban green infrastructure: a health impact assessment of European cities, The Lancet (2023).


GHGSat: Commercial satellite will see CO2 super-emitters
Jan 2023, BBC News

Almost feels like the future:

The world's first commercial satellite dedicated to monitoring carbon dioxide from orbit will launch later this year.

It will be put up by the Canadian company GHGSat, which already flies six spacecraft tracking methane emissions. The new platform will use the same shortwave infrared sensor but be tuned to CO2's specific light signature in the atmosphere. The satellite will have a resolution at ground level of 25m, meaning it will be able to see major individual sources. Others make large area maps; they're not set up to hone in on super-emitters at the scale of an individual industrial complex.

(We already know where they are in general, this will just help us confirm the individual emitter.)


Post Script:
Childhood trauma linked to civic environmental engagement, green behavior
Jan 2023, phys.org

Experiencing childhood trauma may lead an individual to volunteer, donate money or contact their elected officials about environmental issues later in life. 

In addition, those who traveled and had experiences in nature as children were also more likely to report engaging in private "green behavior" as adults, such as recycling, driving or flying less, and taking shorter showers.

via University of Colorado at Boulder: Urooj S. Raja et al, Childhood trauma and other formative life experiences predict environmental engagement, Scientific Reports (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-24517-7

Post Post Script:
Tax rebates for solar power ineffective for low-income Americans, but study finds a different incentive works
Nov 2022, phys.org

Machine-learning model "DeepSolar++" analyzed satellite images to identify where solar panels are and when they were installed in more than 400 counties across the United States, from 2006 through 2017, and then combined that data with information about each community's demographics as well as local financial incentives for solar power.

For low income groups, what works is performance incentives which reward customers based on how much solar they produce or how much less electricity they buy from the grid.

via Stanford: Zhecheng Wang et al, DeepSolar++: Understanding residential solar adoption trajectories with computer vision and technology diffusion models, Joule (2022). DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2022.09.011

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